—Major efforts to slow the growth of Islamist radicalism and violence in the country’s economic, agricultural and industrial heartland in the Sindh and Punjab. This will require a modus Vivendi with the tribes on the western border that encourages them—with subventions of (probably US) money, weaponry and other support—to stop attacking in Pakistan proper and begin aiding their Afghan brethren against Karzai.
—Pakistan’s intelligence service (ISI) will try to mend fences with Pashtuns on both sides of the border, and influence them to attack Karzai’s regime, NATO forces, and Indian targets, all in an effort to hurry NATO’s defeat and help the Islamists to retake power in Kabul. This is the only long-term result that meets Pakistan’s national security needs.
—The Army will reduce the lethality of its tribal-area operations as its contribution to ending the civil war Musharraf ignited. No doubt Kayani will keep the Army active in the tribal lands, but only with Potemkin operations meant to keep US aid flowing while not further alienating the Pashtuns. This tack also will start to ease the deep discontent in the Army over being tasked to kill Muslims for US infidels.
—Zidari and Kayani will seek promises from Riyadh to financially assist Pakistan if Washington cuts aid to Pakistan. Since Islamabad’s goal of replacing Karzai with a Taliban-like regime is compatible with Saudi and Gulf state foreign-policy goals—indeed, much of the Taliban’s funding is from the Gulf—such a pledge from Riyadh is likely. As a sweetener, the Pakistanis will help insert young Gulf jihadis returning from Iraq or graduating from so-called reeducation camps into Afghanistan to fight US-NATO forces.
For Kayani and Zidari, the time clearly has come to stop being a US proxy and to focus on halting Pakistan’s drift toward becoming a failed state. Because Washington has no clue that the services rendered it by Musharraf and Zidari caused the civil war now raging in Pakistan, Kayani and Zidari can expect nothing from Obama’s administration except demands for actions that would ultimately destroy Pakistan’s stability, with unforeseeable consequences for its nuclear arsenal. To do less than this—at least for Kayani and the Army—would breech not only their oath of allegiance, but of their self-interest.
Such Pakistani action might also have a bracing, reality-inducing impact on the US government. It might start to see what was obvious on 9/11—that is, annihilating al-Qaeda is Washington’s responsibility. To have help from NATO, Pakistan and others is nice, but not a substitute for depending on US military forces to extirpate as much of al-Qaeda, the Taliban and their supporters as possible and then withdraw immediately. Since 9/11, this has been Washington’s only achievable Afghan task. By not accepting this reality, Bush and now Obama have fought a war that today leaves the United States farther from victory than in 2001 and which will require far more US money and blood to win than has been so far expended.
In one of the quirky opportunities history sometimes yields, there’s a chance the still- young Pakistani state, by looking to its own security, might breathe a fresh breath of adulthood into the now toothless, irresolute and increasingly adolescent 234-year-old US government and push it to the commonsense conclusion that—in the words of the Prophet Muhammad and Theodore Roosevelt—God helps only those who fear Him and take their own part.
Sadly, however, there’s little solid reason for anyone to bet on this godsend occurring.
Michael Scheuer is the author of ‘Imperial Hubris’ and former chief of the CIA’s Bin Laden Issue Station. He writes regularly for Non-intervention.com
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mere mutabiq
I agree with the U.S Secretary of State because US did not value the sacrifices of Pakistan. Despite of acknowledging the sacrifices, US tried her best to abuse Pakistan with discriminative policies, threats, harassment, negative propaganda and blackmail. The U.S and her allies only think for themselves and are not concerned about others at all. They are only concerned about the safety and security of their own people but don’t want to give the same right to other governments. U.S should keep in mind if she has the responsibility to safeguard her people; it is the prime responsibility of other governments to protect their people too. It is my belief that what Pakistan did for U.S, nobody on earth could do this for U.S even countries like ISRAEL and other beggars who receives billions of dollars f Aid from U.S for decades. Without a doubt Secretary Clinton’s opinion is based on truth and has a significant importance because she is involved in entire situation since President Obama took the office. She opens her mouth in recognition of Pakistan sacrifices but a mafia of war mongers, invaders, oppressors, colonialists and aggressors zip her mouth up because they are very powerful and they have won so far due to their majority. Secretary Clinton is aware of the Loss of 40000 military and civilian lives in addition billions of dollars loss in economy, destruction of infrastructure and almost a civil war in the country. The government did not do anything for the welfare and betterment of the people of Pakistan because of limited resources. Before becoming an ally of US in the War against terror the poverty level of Pakistan was around 30%s which significantly increased after this war and of course the unemployment was low too. There is no doubt in my mind that the Pakistan authorities intentionally played with the emotion of Pakistan by jumping into this war, killing her own people and assisting US to kill citizens of Pakistan. Accepting 10 to 12 billions of dollars in Aid in exchange for a huge loss of 68 billion dollars is not a wise decision but it did happen because of the corrupt current leadership of Pakistan. The coward and self interest oriented leadership bowed to the U.S pressure and to get monetary benefits they came into power in result of a dirty NRO deal among U.S, U.K, MUSHARRAF (former President) & ZARDARI (current President). The current leadership suited U.S very well but unfortunately it fired back because of a stupid action of NATO in which 24 Pakistan soldiers died. Despite of all sacrifices, U.S demand of do more did not stop and almost there used to be a new demand every day from U.S. In my opinion the technique of demands were meant for pressurize Pakistan but they were weird and illegitimate because U.S was asking Pakistan to take action against Taliban and her own people in the bordering area next to Afghanistan but on the other hands U.S was involved in the negotiation with Taliban directly ignoring the interest of Pakistan. People of Pakistan think that this type of behavior is not of a friend, it can only be expected from a deadly enemy. People also noticed that due to the bitter relationship with U.S, the drone and suicidal attacks stopped all of a sudden. There is logic of break in Drone attacks but they are unable to understand the logic of suicidal attack. They have the feelings that U.S was behind the suicidal attacks to create unrest and chaotic situation in Pakistan. As I understand people of Pakistan blame U.S for the situation and are sick and tired of US behavior and pushed their government to take a strong stand and say NO to U.S. The unjustified pressure of U.S forced people of Pakistan to push their government to take a firm and strong stand against U.S. In compliance to the people’s call the government of Pakistan took a bold step of disconnection of supplies to NATO and vacation of Shamsi Airfields which was a killing base drones. The U.S administration is shocked or in a coma because it is much unexpected that Pakistan will take such a strong and firm stand. I have a fear, if any government tries to bypass the nation in taking any action the ruling party may lose power and responsible may be dragged to the courts for legal proceedings. Therefore, I don’t think any one will dare to take any action like Musharraf and his predecessors did since 2001 to late 2011. Answer to those who accuse Pakistan of terror and quote example of India they should grow up and learn about history. For their information, Pakistan is not a terrorist state; Pakistan did not attack or occupied the land of any other country. Fact of the matter is the terrorist states are U.S, EUROPE, and ISRAEL AND INDIA. U.S & Europe terrorize the world through NATO and dictate the world according to their wishes, Israel occupied the land of Palestine and India occupied the land of Kashmir by terrorizing the innocent people of Palestine and Kashmir respectively. I feel pity for those who just open their mouth and say whatever they want because of their poor knowledge and ignorance. If U.S & her allies, ISRAEL & INDIA stop atrocities, harassing, terrorizing, threatening, interfering in other countries internal affairs and stop being a police man, there will be no danger or threat at all. But if they continue these practices, people have the right to defend themselves no matter what dirty propaganda is done against them. I believe that the people of world will be in peace & comfort if they mind their own business. But it is not going to happen because U.S & allies have their agenda of killing and robbing of weak & mineral rich countries resources. ISRAEL has an agenda of grabbing & occupying the land of Palestine and killing of innocent Palestinians. Similarly India has the agenda of occupation of Kashmir and human rights violation. Since both the countries are in violation of international treaties and resolution but unfortunately US and Western world is backing them up in carrying out their heinous agenda. The allies want to make their own people lives happy by bringing miseries to the people of weak countries. U.S & her allies don’t want peace at all because they have their interests and to protect their interest they don’t give a damn but it is scary because the next generations might pay for the current generation mistakes. They should not forget that every fall has a rise and every rise has a fall too. Many super powers surfaced on horizon in the history from time to time but they disappeared after sometime and the same can happen to the current super powers and their friends too. I would not be wrong for holding US responsible for the current situation of Pakistan due to Pakistan’s alliance of U.S in war against terror and corrupt rulers of Pakistan. I also believe that U.S did it all intentionally to restrict Pakistan from Economical & Technological growth by entangling her in the war against former Soviet Union & war against terror over a period of 2 decades.
Ali Sabir
It’s important for the USA to re-evaluate how it deals with Israel. George Washington said in his farwell addr, to be cautious of Americas foreign policy being taken over by another nations and thats just what has happened in the case of Israel. As for what the USA should do in the Middle East It should help build Afghanistan and send in more troops its all a numbers game more troops will allow quick results. The USA has to create a model out of Afghanistan that will bring masses to over throw corrupt politicians else where and restore trust and respect for Amerirca. We need to open formal diplomatic talks on a serious note with Iran and allow them to trade their oil and stop punishing US companies from doing bussiness with them via sancations and open diplomatic talks & put a little more pressure on the Saudis with regards to the whabbi terrorist support and assure the kingdom ship of security from Iran and Iran from Israel. We need to send Syria an ultimatium to stop or else face a NATO attack. In libya the US should take over command and send in troops and bring a quick end. We need to open better diplomatic ties and more trade with Pakistan. The Pakistanis are victims of our 80’s war against the Soviets via Afghanistan but also a very key alley for us against a rising Indian super power and unstability in Afghanistan. Throgh higher levels of trade with China and not war kind of like how the EU started with steel trade between France and Germany, We should start selling China fighter planes and super carriers and eventually with time we will be able to see a great new freindship with China through trade. Why is the Islamic world so important because as much as they hate US foreign policy (due to its unconditional love affair with Israel and India) Muslims are also our gretaest fans they actually admire America, Americans and made in the USA more than maybe any other group of peoples on the planet. I hope the USA wakes up and sees the great potential from freindship with the Islamic world and the Islamic countries need to recognize Israel and trade with it but Israel also has to not only recognize but allow the Palestinans their human rights. America was a nation built on great principles and unless it goes back to the teachings of the men who signed its great constitution it will end up becoming destroyed by the greed of the zionists. I pray for America in light of Israeli mossad and the Indian gov’t helping Osama bin ladden by transporting him to Abbottabad and providing him shelter in a matter of fact I can even prove they were hidding him their. God bless the USA from the zionists (Lobbyists have destroyed Americas fundmental path of greatness and no more so than the Israeli and Indian lobyists who care only for their won and not for humanity) Muslims go back to your Islamic teachings and love the Christians in America for they are our freinds and their nation has been hijacked by israel
Don
The US must grow up on China first – understand ground realities, and threats to us now and in the long run. It was short-sighted on Kissinger’s part to open up a can of worms by awakening the dragon. Now the dragon has got us by the tail and Kissinger keeps dreaming that hopefully China gets old before it gets rich, and hopefully it won’t confront us. Wrong! Letting Chinese hegemony cross the Himalayas is extremely dangerous and it also appears to be ultimate death nail China would like to hit in order to end US hegemony. It will not sit quiet until US hegemony is destroyed. Just as Pakistan was a pawn in the US’ arsenal against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, China is now using the same pawn against us. And this time around it ain’t gonna be as easy. It’s already a classic stalemate and will only exacerbate to our disadvantage going forward unless we replace China for India as a strategic partner. In fact, this should have had begun a decade ago but perhaps our think tanks were impotent or infiltrated by Chinese interests. Pakistan is not drifting towards being a failed state. It already is, and is on the brink of collapse as admitted by Zardari lately. Pakistan is not Iraq and going it alone on a complex issue would be disastrous. India has decades of experience dealing with Pakistan bred terrorism. Perhaps India has lacked the will for being sidelined by the West for decades. We should back up India with resources and let them handle the situation on the ground, to protect our interests, and bring order in a seriously troubled region.