There’s simply too much that could go wrong: fighter jets can go astray or be shot down, bombs sometimes miss, facilities may be better hidden or shielded than intelligence suggests. And once Iran has the knowledge of how to build bombs, it will anyway eventually be able to try again (meanwhile a full-blown war would be going on between the two countries).
This would all be challenging enough even if Israel had the full backing of the international community. But it doesn’t, and it would also be forced to contend with the prospect of having rockets fired at it from Hamas and Hezbollah.
So what next? One step is to prepare its offensive forces and a layered missile shield to defend against any Iranian nuclear attack. Such defences aren’t foolproof, but given the small number of missiles Iran could fire at any one time, there’s a strong chance any such attack would be neutralized (although an awareness of Israel’s much more massive second-strike capability could well deter it from a launch anyway).
And ruling out an attack now doesn’t mean ruling one out altogether. If an attack seems imminent, Israel can reserve the option of a pre-emptive strike as it undertook in 1967 under similar circumstances.
And as the United States and other countries build up the apparatus to contain Iran, their preparations would assist this more considered scenario. The United States has already begun to send advanced detection systems to the Gulf and will be placing anti-missile facilities there. These are intended first to protect Saudi Arabia but will also effectively function as protection for Israel.
The debate hasn’t been won, but the wait-and-prepare approach reflects the majority position among Israel’s leadership. So, while an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities can’t be ruled out, a more likely outcome will be that Iran will obtain deliverable nuclear weapons in the next three to four years. It’s a scenario the US and the world will have to deal with, though it also threatens to change the entire strategic balance in the Middle East.
In an ideal world, Iran will be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons at all. But the reality may prove to be that the main task is trying to prevent Iran from using such weapons as a strategic instrument to discredit Western power and subvert Arab governments (or turn them into appeasers). Doing so successfully will prevent far more unrest and bloodshed in the Middle East for decades to come.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research for International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal and the Turkish Studies journal.
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Educated
Every day in Iran is a Holiday huh? Your English not being good is the least of your worries, you should worry about your brain.
People may argue however they please but do your homework, no I am not doing it for you. If the current Iranian regime develops a nuke they will use it.
IF Syria continues on its current path, then its irrelevant anyways Israel will have won with the fall of Assad. Then when the next generation of Palestinians come into power a two state solution without dissolution will be possible, not before.
Hatem
I think Israeli claims that they are mere political propagands..
1- They are the ones who have a huge arsenal nuclear weapons, no other nation in the region would dare to use nukes against them…
2- If Iran actually attacks Israel, they would be also attacking the Palestinians and Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.. which they can’t really afford..
It is all about influence in the region.. My opinion is that the region needs another nuclear power to balance Israeli misused power.
Adam
Israel is already a failed state… I think Israel has less than 40 years left as a state, as the balance of power shifts to China/India/Iran the US will be unable to assist Israel in a Iranian, Lebanese, Egyptian, Turkish/Palestinian/Syrian/Jordanian, and a hasbullah lead attack on Israel. if you as me… Israel deserve everything that is coming for there disgusting behaviour…
I’ll be cheering for the people who were victims if Israeli crime since the 1940’s just as much as i support the Jews case throughout the war. Jews .. your time of Sympathy has expired because of how you treat your neighbours.
ali
I totally agree with u.
Yousef Namin
Here is Why US Should Attack Iran
http://namin.org/US_Attack_IRAN.html
commandante
US Should Attack also vatican ?
http://www.siofok-plebania.eoldal.hu/archiv/iobrazek/31
http://amnestyinternational.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/pope.jpg
It is ridiculous!
adam
The US should attack Israeli state lead terrorism