The Thai Red Shirts have the hallmarks of an insurgency. Does a book written by David Petraeus show how to resolve the issue?
The Thai government is preparing to launch a national reconciliation process after the most violent and divisive political confrontation in recent memory came to a head last month. But some key questions have so far been left unanswered. Is the country facing a terrorist threat? Is there a risk of a popular uprising or insurgency? These aren’t academic questions—they need to be answered if Thailand’s leaders are to have any hope of finding the right prescription for the country’s political malaise.
I spoke recently with a Thai Special Forces officer who told me that the U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual is actually a good place to start thinking about the situation in his country. The book, penned mostly by US Gen. David Petraeus and US Gen. James Amos, draws on the views of academics, lawyers, human rights activists and journalists. Petraeus, just nominated to succeed Gen. Stanley McChrystal as head of US forces in Afghanistan, was commander of the US forces in Iraq during the so-called surge in 2007, and beta-tested the doctrine with impressive results. Indeed, he’s expected to continue implementing the counter-insurgency (COIN) strategy in Afghanistan.
The officer has a point. The scenarios outlined in the Field Manual contain some striking parallels with what has happened in Thailand over the past couple of months, and while it would be a stretch to describe the Red Shirt movement as a full-blown insurgency, as the Islamist militants in the south of the country are usually described, there’s still plenty of food for thought.
The Manual defines an insurgency as an organized movement ‘aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict.’ A common view of insurgencies is that they’re a struggle to break away from the government with a view to forming an autonomous identity. But the Manual argues that this isn’t necessarily the case, and that overthrowing the existing social order within a single state is enough to warrant the insurgency label.
The Manual adds that an insurgent organization normally consists of five elements: Leadership, Combatants, Political Cadre, Auxiliaries and Mass base. Leadership is essentially those providing strategic guidance to the insurgency, and they typically secure this status through sheer force of personality. Combatants are those who actually engage in battle with the authorities, and in doing so provide security for the movement. Political Cadres drive the political agenda of the insurgency, and execute the leadership’s plans, while Auxiliaries provide general support but don’t actually engage in combat (they instead run safe houses, store weapons and provide supplies and other logistical needs). The Mass base is the supporting populace of the insurgent movement.
Photo Credit: Flickr / K.rol2007
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Jon Brittle
Perhaps the author, a Thai Muslim, raised in Bangkok among the elite going to private school in at Ramrudee International School, and then being able to be educated in Georgetown, can explain the Thai Southern Insurgency to us and forget about the redshirts. I am interested to get is opinions on this and weather COIN has or would be effective in dealing with it. ETC.
Akarindra
Yes, probably majority of Thais are red and in favour of Thaksin, just like majority of Argentinians who used to support Peron through his popularism policies in giving away money to people in rural area. Legally, righteously, and shamelessly utilised the national budget to gain support from citizens. So he can be reelected again and again until he had screwed all of Argentina’s natural resources by privatising most of crucial public sectors and sold to foreign MNE’s. And before most of Argentinians realised what had happened, it was already too late because none of their own natural resources like water and electricity remain theirs. I don’t care if Thailand would remain democratic or not because since we robbed the power from the monarch, we still haven’t got a clue how to manage the power and in the end we, Thai people, have never had any real control of the country apart from attending election once in every four years or shorter. And there aren’t many choices to choose too. Because most of Thai politicians are crooks. Those who tried to stay clean will have great difficulty to stay in politics and will be considered as black sheeps. As days gone by, Thai politic becomes closer to Thai soap movies, the bads become real bad and there is no shame in hiding it anymore. Lies and denying any ill actions become common practices for Thai politicians from all parties. I do not wish for democracy anymore but I pray for an absolute clean leader who would introduce good governance mo matter where and which class he or she comes from and whatever governing system it is going to be. Communist, democracy, absolute monarchy or even authoritarian provided the leader truly love and care for his people. And Thaksin or any existing political leaders are still far from being that person. And this is why we are still in need of dealing with insurgencies that are fruits of our deformed and twisted democracy created by our twisted politicians.