Meanwhile, to some Iranians, the Turkish flotilla shouldn’t be interpreted as an attack on the Israeli siege of Gaza, but first and foremost as an assault against their influence in Gaza. Iran’s efforts to send its own flotilla are testimony to that. Iran’s main goal is not to help Palestinians who are suffering the consequences of the siege—that’s maybe a second or third consideration. Its number one goal is actually to save its standing and influence in Gaza compared with the Turks, and to improve its image in the Islamic world as the defender of the Islamic cause.
It’s the same with Syria. For years, Iran has been trying to capture the Syrian market. Iranian officials have reportedly been greasing the palms of corrupt Syrian oligarchs such as Rami Makhlouf and the Assad family with bribes. They were also investing in the country when it was considered a pariah and no one else would invest there. This was especially true after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Now the Turks have arrived, and with their Free Trade Agreement are penetrating the Syrian economy and grabbing market share from Iran. The fact that both countries share a land border (unlike with Iran) makes Turkey an even more attractive destination.
Erdogan’s recent policies suggest that he’s on the path toward making Turkey the leader of the Islamic world, especially in the Middle East—something Iran has been trying to do for the past 32 years. This reality is ultimately going to see them compete and clash over spheres of influence.
Between the two, Turkey has a bigger and more advanced economy. Its relations with the United States and EU are far better than those of Iran. So are its relations with Sunni countries as well as Shiite ones. As a consequence, improving relations with Turkey offers much better prospects and returns for many Middle Eastern countries and groups. And although they won’t break off relations with Iran, the increasing presence of Turkey is likely to come at a high cost for Tehran.
Iranians leaders will soon be looking for some kind of competitive advantage. With their economy in tatters and their country more isolated than before, becoming a nuclear armed country is likely to be the most attractive and convenient means for Iran’s Supreme Leader to gain an edge over the Turks.
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Tufan
Wishful thinking for USA and EU (collectively called Israel).
Charlie
The twenty-first century has and will witness the unification of all Muslims. Despite all ramifications, Muslims (shia or sunni), will cooperate because each distinct group has experienced American, English, French tutelage in the region. People are aware, leaders are aware and no interest-driven group will offer an incentive for corrupt governance. Let us not be fooled of nominal clash between Iran and Turkey. Both parties must cooperate with one another because of a common enemy. This is what will unify as opposed to disintegrate them.
ElamBend
Anatolia and Persian have always clashed, particularly over the influence in Mesopotamia and the Levant. For all the support they’ve given Hamas, the Iranian regime must of been a bit chagrined to see Turkish flags waived recently have the most recent political crisis there.
In the context of the US/Israel, both regimes seem to be on the same side, but it is an illusion of aligned by conflicting interests. Both regimes are trying to set their countries as the leader among Muslims at large and in the Middle East locally. It is an old game and at some point one will wish to dominate the other. Given the economic differences, I would Turkey is the dominant of the two.
@Dave123, you’re right, but so too would Azeri separatist in Iran (or even Kurds for that matter).
ElamBend
I should have also noted that the same factors that made the US a natural ally/sponsor for Turkey (and at one time Iran), still apply toward Iran. A powerful ally from far away can make relations with neighbors much more genial.
Crissy
This forum needed shinakg up and youve just done that. Great post!
Tolga
Turkey is not rival for İran. Turkey is İsrail’s and US’s rival. İran is Friend for Turkey. Thank you.
Iranian
The author of this article has an Anti-Iranian agenda, he is an Iranian Jew and has long been taking digs at Iran. The first thing he wrote about after the Flotilla attack is how Turkey is becoming the leader of the Islamic world at the expense of Iran. He is trying to create divisions in the Islamic world to distract the attention from Israels crimes.
It’s all nonsense of course. Iran’s economy is larger than Turkey according to the CIA factbook, Iran and Turkey have great relations and Iran has been spending $3 million dollars in Aid to Hamas each year, not the hundreds he is talking about.
John Brocklehurst
Iranian,
Iran’s economy is just over half the size of Turkey’s according to the CIA factbook. This is approximately the same as the estimates of the IMF. So not only are you lying outright, but you aren’t addressing anything in the article itself, you are just insulting the author.
I don’t think I’m the only one who doesn’t find this very convincing.
Alan
That’s a very eye opening perspective that hadn’t occurred to me. Perhaps then Turkey emerges as a useful foil. As of this point, I don’t see Turkey offering material assistance to terrorist organizations, even as it has definitely, if not permanently, turned anti-western.
Dave123
I expect If Turkey becomes a real threat to Iranian influence that the PKK will have a new sponsor