That’s not good news for Kim Jong-un, an untested candidate for succession. He is said to have inherited the ‘dictator gene,’ and no doubt his dad is giving him lessons in advanced cruelty, prevarication, and double-dealing. Yet the challenges will nonetheless be daunting, especially if he faces them without parental backup.
There’s always hope for the youngest Kim. In late 1994, few thought Kim Jong-il could survive without his dad. Top brass and senior officials, however, eventually assented to the first hereditary transfer of power in a communist state by rallying around Kim Jr. But there’s one crucial difference between then and now. In October 1994, the Clinton administration signalled its support for continuation of the Kim regime by signing the Agreed Framework, an interim arrangement to suspend the North Korean nuclear programme.
Given today’s near universal pessimism in Washington about Pyongyang’s long-term intentions, it’s unlikely the Obama administration will come to Kim Jong-un’s rescue in such a dramatic—and tangible—fashion. Moreover, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, even if he wanted to, can’t provide assistance after the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, a frigate.
That leaves China as the only possible saviour of the Kim dynasty. President Hu Jintao has consistently supported North Korea this decade. There may be great frustration with Pyongyang in Beijing’s policy circles, but there’s no consensus on withdrawing support for Kimist Korea.
On the contrary, we can expect Beijing and Pyongyang to retain their strong links. In addition to sentimental reasons for the continued bond, there are structural ones. Kim family provocations destabilize Japan, unnerve South Korea, and make the United States feel beholden to China. What’s there for Beijing not to like? Moreover, both the Chinese and the North Koreans have identified Western nations as obstacles to their long-term ambitions.
At this moment, we don’t know how Beijing’s policymakers feel about Kim Jong-un, but there are reasons to believe they would not object to him as North Korea’s next leader. He will, in all probability, be a weak one and especially dependent on Beijing.
For decades, Beijing has cultivated North Korean officials, and Kim Jong-il has periodically purged them. The dynamic continues today and will only end when he loses power. But by then Beijing, especially if it has gained the upper hand, will undoubtedly have learned to live with the newest Kim. Kim Jong-un, when he steps into his dad’s elevator shoes, may only be a figurehead. But from China’s viewpoint, that will be ideal.
Gordon G. Chang writes a weekly column at Forbes.com. He is the author of ‘Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World.’
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Michael
“The regime, although not formally a monarchy, derives its legitimacy from the Kim family.”
I wonder if they’ve tried becoming a formal monarchy, maybe marrying in any members of Korea’s old royal and noble families that got stuck on their side of the 38th?
Eugene
Re: “The regime has promised its’ people by 2012 their nation will be a ’strong and prosperous nation’”. My question is: How will the North Korean regime achieve this “prosperity”? This may be a sign of an upcoming military conflict on the Korean Peninsula in the future.