By The Diplomat
Veteran Japan watcher Karel van Wolferen talks to The Diplomat about the fall of Hatoyama and what to expect from Naoto Kan.
Were you surprised by the timing of Yukio Hatoyama’s resignation as prime minister?
Yes and no. I thought in December that by setting a deadline for a decision on the Futenma Air Station issue that he had condemned his administration. It’s a bit of a puzzle why he did it, but I think he did so because the pressure on him to set a deadline by the Foreign Ministry and his defence people—those two groups of bureaucrats are used to working with the United States—was enormous. And he thought he would be safe, because he counted on an opportunity to discuss this directly with Barack Obama in the context of a much broader plan of what to do in the future and what kind of strategy to follow as a genuine ally.
And Hatoyama had every right, of course, to think that he would get such an opportunity. But he didn’t. There were three attempts, as far as I know, to speak to Obama in a one-on-one serious discussion, and the people who were running the Japan show in Washington were dead set against it. Washington wanted to torpedo the Hatoyama government and they succeeded.
Why?
Washington wants an administration like they had before, that will do what they say. Although of course the Liberal Democratic Party wasn’t doing that—they had a way of shoving it ahead of them. The LDP had been postponing this whole base plan for six years and they were going to postpone it further. Why? Because it’s not implementable. That’s a very basic point, which the Tokyo-based media haven’t been sufficiently pushing because they haven’t been paying attention to Okinawa. The editors get all worked up, as of course they should, about a teenage girl getting raped, but the broader thing they stay away from.
The most important thing to remember is that the LDP would not have carried out the Henoko relocation plan, because you can’t carry it out. It’s impossible. It also means that Naoto Kan’s cabinet could also be torpedoed by Washington. And it may well happen. Because Japan is not an ally of the United States—Japan is a protectorate.
What the LDP did last spring was to reconfirm the whole base issue knowing they were going to be defeated in the elections. So they dumped this in the lap of the DPJ. And what they did was then go to Washington, going around to whoever wanted to listen in Washington, and saying ‘these guys in the DPJ are amateurs, they’re inexperienced, they’re weak.’ And so they were there undermining the government in Japan.
When I spoke to you just after the Democratic Party of Japan’s landslide election win last year, you were extremely optimistic over the prospects for change in Japan.
That hasn’t changed. Kan is a very accomplished member of the DPJ, and he’s fully aware of the structural changes that must be made. If you asked me who among the top people of the DPJ is most aware of the structural changes, I’d say Kan and Ichiro Ozawa. And Kan is probably better positioned than Hatoyama to deal with the bureaucrats and work out a co-operative relationship, which is the most important political task for a Japanese political leader—how do you work out a relationship where you have political control over a bureaucracy that isn’t used to it? You can’t have war between bureaucrats and politicians.
Photo Credit: Flickr / Shibuya246
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Dan Kuyek
Hmm, “western lackey”. No country with an American military presence has ever been invaded. Thereby saving untold billions from defense budgets and allowing faster economic development.
Almost every country connected to the sea of China has requested a continued military presence in the region, including Vietnam.
Stability, burgeoning economies all over Asia. All at the expense of the US.
The only valid justification being it would cost the Americans a lot more if they let you travel the usual course, having to “intervene” yet again.
Count your lucky stars, for those days are to an end and you will come to rue that day.
Michal Zapedowski
Would-be invaders? This isn’t 1945. No one is going to invade Japan.
If the DPJ had any guts, it would truly differentiate itself from the LDP, by asking the Marines to leave Japanese territory — not out of spite or anti-Americanism, but simply because, after 65 years, there simply isn’t any reason for them to be there anymore.
Japanese territory is not under any direct geopolitical threat, and if it were, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are fully capable of handling it. It’s time for America to stop baby-sitting other peaceful democracies. I’m sure there are many Marines who would agree. And why should they be asked to serve, in peacetime territory, where the local population hates them, and when their brothers in arms are fighting and dying in Afghanistan serving much clearer objectives?
The DPJ would be doing the people of Okinawa a favor, essentially acknowledging them as equal citizens of Japan, because the inhabitants of that island bear no more responsibility for Japanese militarism during the 1930s through 1945 than anyone else, and Okinawans should not be relegated to the status of a permanent aircraft carrier for a foreign country. The rape of one Okinawan girl by a Marine is merely the spark that lit a tinder-keg, so to speak. The tensions were already there before, and I’m sure even the Okinawans realize that that individual Marine is not emblematic of the entire Corps, by any means. It’s simply the straw that broke the camel’s back.
And they would be doing American taxpayers a favor, because — if you want to talk about “bureaucratic capture” — there is no reason for the U.S. military bases in Japan, other than that they are a major source of profit for certain entrenched interests in the military-industrial complex that General Eisenhower, as President, warned Washington about. His warning went entirely unheeded.
In other words, ordinary voters on both sides of the Pacific are looking for a little bit of political courage — and the DPJ is looking to demonstrate its competence, show that it can be taken seriously, and simultaneously differentiate itself from the LDP. What are they waiting for? Mr. Hatoyama — if you were willing to fall on your sword and resign the premiership, why did you not do what was necessary first? And Mr. Kan, will you have more courage than your predecessor?
Kujirakira
“…but simply because, after 65 years, there simply isn’t any reason for them to be there anymore.
…
Japanese territory is not under any direct geopolitical threat
…
there is no reason for the U.S. military bases in Japan”
While I’m all for cutting down on the presence of US military in Japan, and especially Okinawa, these sorts of statements entirely miss what is really going on here.
US forces aren’t in Japan, and especially not Okinawa, because of anything to do with threats to Japan. They are there for South Korea and Taiwan. Okinawa is in an especially advantageous strategic location with respect to Taiwan.
The Marines based in Futenma are part of a theoretical fighting force which can, on a moments notice, respond to Chinese aggression against Taiwan or reinforce South Korea.
Now, that’s not an excuse for Okinawans to bare the burden. The likelihood of you getting Futenma specifically moved is about 0 in a million. Especially with all the snake rattling from North Korea now.
However, it’s important to understand exactly why we are there, and how it relates to our sphere of influence in general. The kind of arguments you put forth about tax payer money and Japanese soil would be immediately dismissed.
You are right that the military industrial complex has taken over a huge part of our GDP… but that doesn’t actually have any relation to bases in Japan. In fact, a large percentage of our base infrastructure in Japan is funded by Japanese taxes. The military industrial complex is in the R&D department… we’re not going to save any money by moving 50,000 people from one plot of dirt to another plot of dirt.
Shawn
It’s sad that a once proud and independent people with the soul of a samurai have now been reduced to a western lackey, a stooge! For japan to return to its former glory it its leaders must once again don the samurai outfit and take back control of their country from the western government proxies and their banking overlords!
RJ
Shawn, your comments sound like someone playing a Japanese video game, not a statesman. I don’t know what former glory you are talking about, as Japan today is highly prosperous, technologically advanced and possesses a strong military.
However, there are certain geopolitical facts you should consider. Japan’s vital sea lanes overlap China’s. Both nations neet access to the South China sea and the straits of Malacca, as both nations need to import oil and raw materials (Japan even more so than China). Removing the US Navy from the region would encourage China to seek hegemony over these sea routes. Japan would be forced into an expensive arms race with China. It is a far better arrangement to let a benevolent power like the USA take care of maintaining these sea routes than for Japan to directly confront China herself. Japan has a vital role to play in the region, but it is through working in concert with the USA, not trying to go it alone.
Dr Michael Vaughan
Japan is undergoing a political upheaval. Prime Minister Kan’s new Government may reverse some of the disillusionment affecting the Japanese electorate, but it will not change Washington’s ongoing domination of Japanese defence policy. Kan’s Government has just admitted that the US Marine Base, in its view, acts as a “deterrent” to would-be aggressors. The real question is what role can the ailing and unpopular Ichiro Ozawa play in Japan’s political future. True, he still leads the biggest faction within the DPJ (some 150 lawmakers in both Houses of the Diet) and true, he remains the Party’s effective founder. He will not, though, be able to dislodge the Americans from Okinawa and he will need to work hard to strengthen ties with China. He will also have to work very hard to convince angry Japanese voters to support the DPJ in the July Upper House Elections.