That would be a win-win situation for everyone. Iran would come out of isolation. Obama and the EU can calm fears and nerves about Iran's programme and the Brazilians and the Turkish would be able to enjoy the economic fruits of their friendship with Iran without looking like they’ve just been bought out by Tehran. But until such a time, the fact that President Lula was accompanied by 300 businesspeople (and is planning to increase his dealings with Iran from the current $1.2 billion to $10 billion) will mean that’s exactly how his country looks. And so will Turkey, which is buying gas below market prices from Iran and whose exports to Iran have increased by more than 800 percent since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took office in 2002.
France also has an important role to play. The nuclear fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor can only be produced by the French or the Argentinians. Buenos Aires has rejected taking part, since it wants Iran to hand over suspects for the Israeli embassy bombing of 1992 and the AMIA bombing of 1994. France, however, has just greatly improved its position vis-a-vis Tehran by releasing Ali Vakili Rad, who murdered the former Iranian Prime Minister and dissident Shahpour Bakhtiar in 1991. This gives Paris leverage, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy should use this to pressure Iran to become more transparent over its nuclear programme.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran, after 32 years on hold, won’t be easy. Nor will they be short. They will take time and patience.
While Iran has every right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, it must realize that the world doesn’t trust its intentions. Obama's initial offer last October aimed to create an atmosphere of trust for negotiations by approaching Tehran. It also meant to take more than half of its LEU away, so that it can't make a bomb while negotiating. This hardly seems too much to ask of the regime when it’s still allowed to enrich Uranium, despite three United Nations resolutions which urge it to stop.
But Iran appears to want to have the capacity to make a bomb while talking, making this latest deal a difficult sell to the West. The international community needs reassurances. Obama, for example, faced with difficult mid-term elections this year, needs to show his Republican rivals that he’s taking the issue of Iran very seriously. The same goes for the newly-elected Conservative-led British government—both want a negotiated settlement to this problem, but need some kind of firm indication that Iran's goals are purely civilian.
The key to finding a peaceful settlement to the current problem is in Tehran’s own hands. The Iranian government could make life much easier for itself and everyone else by proving that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only. Until this happens, it will increase the cost of its nuclear programme, as well as that of becoming friends with its government. Ultimately, few countries are willing to go against the wishes of the five permanent members of the Security Council—Brazil and Turkey included.
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Howard Wolf
Iran has the Obama administration buffaloed. What we have here is the intentionally created misperception of peaceful intent and cooperativeness. Barack Obama has no intention of seriously confronting Iran. Was it Frederick the Great’s observation that diplomacy without force of arms is like a symphony without musical instruments?
Giles R DeMourot
Any deal based on a fixed quantity of low enriched uranium represents a deception. The deal initially proposed by IAEA covered 80 percent of Iran’s available stock. The same quantity represent now under 60 percent, and in about 6 months time it will represent only 40 percent. At the same time Iran says it will produce 20 percent enriched uranium, from increasing stocks of low enriched uranium. This is going nowhere: Iran has no intention of renouncing the bomb or at least the capacity to make it. Now going from a crude bomb to a miniaturized one will no doubt take some time, but this is no reason for allowing Iran to pursue this course.
Tony Rivera
Interestingly, this article’s main point is valid. Iran should clear up, as any nation processing uranium should, any confusion about its intention. However, the old double standard is clearly evident. Brazil and Turkey should cooperate with the West in order to benefit from economic cooperation. However, trading with Iran appears that they are selling out. Perhaps what the author is really saying is that buying out nations is the purview of the West? It may be the case, that Brazil and Turkey, and Iran and China and India, among others, are tired of the double standard and this deal is part of a new way forward. It is certain that threats are part of diplomacy. But if doing business with the West comes at the expense of a country’s independence and sovereign right to trade and conduct diplomacy as it sees fit, it is not worth the price.
Tagory Cardoso
I think Lula has fallen into Iran’s trap. He’s doing these things because it’s an electoral year here in Brazil, to promote his ex-minister Dilma Roussef. I don’t expect good fruits from this deal with Iran and when he arrive in our country, will use it as a government advertising.