Once the United States leaves Iraq and Afghanistan, this organization is likely to turn its guns against Iran and its allies across the Middle East. Financed with Saudi money, al-Qaeda would likely have more firepower at its disposal.
As well as attacks against Iran’s Shiite allies, al-Qaeda agents could start launching attacks against Iranian border positions in Iraq and Afghanistan. They could also continue with their terrorist attacks inside Iran, which they started on June 24, 2007 when unidentified gunmen believed to be al-Qaeda operatives assassinated Hojjatoleslam Hesham Seimori, the resident Shiite cleric at the Fateme Zahra mosque in the Iranian city of Ahvaz near the Iraqi border. This was followed by a warning issued on July 9 of the same year by Abu Omar Al Baghdadi, a purported leader of the al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic State of Iraq. In his message, he warned Iran to walk away from Iraq and cease its support for Shiite parties or expect a ‘fierce war’ which would strike ‘every spot’ where Iranians are found.
In the face of such attacks, Iran would have to retaliate against border positions in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan, otherwise its allies would become disheartened and its deterrence posture would be eroded. Although Iran has already bombarded Kurdish areas near its borders with Iraq, as attacks intensify, so would Iran’s retaliations. In fact, such attacks could lead to incursions by Iranian land forces.
Yet, this would likely serve the interests of its enemies further, especially politically, as part of their efforts to isolate Iran in the region and in the international arena.
Meanwhile, the West might well engage in its own war of attrition against Iran. This would likely come in the form of sanctions, coupled with an arms race. With Iran’s economy becoming weaker every year, the impact of continuous sanctions against Iran are likely to cause major damage to its economy. This is especially true regarding its biggest money earner—the oil industry.
According to a 2007 study by Roger Stern of John Hopkins University, unless significant investment is made in Iran’s oil industry, it could run out of oil by 2015. It’s unlikely that the West will lift sanctions when Iran does become nuclear, meaning it will become more difficult for the Iranian oil industry to raise the investments it needs to allow it to continue operating. Furthermore, sanctions are likely to decrease investment in other sectors of Iran’s economy, while driving the cost of imports higher. With oil income likely to fall, these are near mortal economic factors which cannot be ignored by Iranian authorities.
At the same time, the West is likely to engage Iran in an arms race. Unwilling to fall behind, the Iranian government is likely to divert money from important areas such as health and education to its defence industry, thus causing further damage to stability and the foundations of its economy
This method succeeded in bringing the USSR down. It could do the same to the Islamic Republic.
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Bill Schram
Will there be no end to all this? Surely in this day and age we need to be focused on freedom and economic survival, not to mention the environmemt. All these efforts and actions in the middle east and Persia are anti-survival.