By Minxin Pei
The Six-Party Talks are looking hopeless, says Minxin Pei. It’s time for policymakers to start planning for the worst. Now.
The motives behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s ‘unofficial’ visit to China last week may not be that hard to decipher. Most analysts suspect he went to see his most important patron to seek more aid and, in all likelihood, his Chinese patrons would have thrown a bone or two to him to bribe him back to the increasingly meaningless Six-Party Talks. But if the stakeholders in East Asia’s peace and stability focus their attention on whether China’s prodding will lead to a more fruitful outcome in dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme this time, they’re simply wasting their time.
Pyongyang’s record on this issue speaks for itself: North Korea has no intention of honouring its commitments to the Six-Party Talks or abandoning its nuclear capabilities.
Judging by recent developments inside North Korea, however, clinging on to its nukes may not actually help prolong Kim Jong-il’s regime. The country’s unfolding economic catastrophe has clearly taken a toll on the regime’s legitimacy and durability—only the most desperate governments in history have resorted to outright confiscation of its people’s money. Seasoned analysts have also reported rising popular resentment against Pyongyang. Thanks to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and other efforts to weaken Kim Jong-il’s regime, North Korea has failed to blackmail the international community into supplying more economic assistance.
More importantly, the Kim Jong-il regime, which has become a classic family dictatorship, is about to face its most difficult test of survival: succession. Stricken by a stroke not too long ago, Kim Jong-il is in frail health and his hold on power is certain to weaken. He appears desperate to install his 27-year old son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. Unfortunately for the Kim dynasty, this process is likely to end in failure. A review of transfers of power in modern family dictatorships (excluding traditional monarchies) shows that the chances of a successful succession from the first-generation dictator to his son are roughly one in four, and no grandson of a first-generation dictator has ever succeeded in taking over a regime and consolidating his power.
Of course, the Kim dynasty may set a precedent. But given the worsening economy, the inexperience of the putative successor and the unknown reliability of the Korean military and security forces in the event of Kim Jong-il’s death, the rest of East Asia should be prepared for a scenario of rapid collapse in North Korea.
Photo Credit: Wiki Commons
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Bernie G
I think Koreans are a little bit crazy, but they have a lot of drive. They need to calm down; vegetarianism would help. Modernizing N. Korea will not be as difficult as some say. The whole country has less than 25 million people, so the problems will not be big compared to say, Eastern Europe. The northern part of Korea could be viewed as an investment opportunity. The sooner US troops can leave, the better. One less place to worry about. What is N. Korea could become an asset to the world instead of a problem.
Nikolai
Too bad South Korea isn’t allowed to give North Korea aid; they could exchange aid to the north for say, manpower, or the south could ship work north in exchange for food. The south could help the north slowly build it’s economy and they, the U.S., Japan and China could also help provide food for the NK citizenry. It’s a plan I think could work, if given a chance.
AZ MAN
Hello! Would someone remind Dr. Pei and comment leavers that the “38th Parallel” has not been the dividing line between the north and south since 1950? It was drawn on a Pentagon map by then-Pentagon officer Dean Rusk, without any considerations of geography, city locations or military defense. It ceased to have any significance once the war started: The current dividing line, established in 1953 by the Armistice Agreement (not a peace treaty, basically a cease fire agreement) is south of the 38th Parallel in the west and north of the line in the east. Ergo, a significant population on both sides of the current border was under the opposite side’s rule for about five years (1945-1950). I do not know Dr. Pei’s credentials, but he can’t have read much of anything about Korea without being aware of this basic fact.
SAM
In the event of DPRK in turmoil or in the brink of collapse China should leave the Korean people to deal with the situation. Everyone knows the North cannot provide even the basics to its people and the South is so vibrant and ultra rich and can undertake much of the region’s economic needs. And most of all, they both are one people and gradually they can decide whether they can really unite or not its high time Korean people should live a dignified life.
Kal
Couple of things:
1. The transfer of power will probably be successful. It will be like the regime transfer from Syrian Hafez Asad to his son Bashar.
2. The writer of the article seems to assume that there is no “plan B” or nearby powers aren’t discussing or are prepared for the eventualities.
agentX
I can tell by the comments here that the brain trust is out to lunch.
The 5 powers in the region probably cannot prevent a Nork regime collapse, but that’s not the point. The point is what happens in the days before the collapse? Will KJII decide “screw it!” and go out in a blaze of glory? Will he use the “poison pill” defense and use nukes on his own citizens?
Leaving the mess to China just guarantees a bigger mess in the long run when the South wants that land (and resources) back. They might not want the people back, giving KJII might have a “Sleeper Cell” plan in the works, but this can be prevented provided the South is willing to “take the necessary steps”.
This place is a powder keg with a lit fuse. All sides needs to be on the ball or WWIII will start here. If not WWIII, then several annoying unnecessary skirmishes and civil wars and a botched nuke exchange (somehow I doubt the Nork nukes are even functional, let alone deployable).
cervantes
I’m not even sure what you mean by a “collapse” of North Korea. Economically, the country has already collapsed; but politically, the population has no cultural, communal or material basis for rebellion. The family succession may well fail, but whatever general takes over will continue to run the political and military apparatus. What else do you think might happen?
This really doesn’t make much sense.
Demarlo
Reading this makes my decisions eisear than taking candy from a baby.