By Minxin Pei
What is most worrying about a possible North Korean collapse is that the key players in the region are not talking to each other, even informally, about such an eventuality. It’s almost certain that these powers—China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and, possibly, Russia—have all drawn up their own contingency plans for Pyongyang’s quick collapse. However, they’ve done nothing to explore a collective response to what is without doubt a geopolitical game-changer.
As a result, many crucial questions remain unanswered. For instance, how should the United States and South Korea react if China sends combat troops into North Korea to conduct ‘humanitarian assistance’ missions? In all likelihood, Beijing will be tempted to do so if millions of refugees start fleeing into China. Which country will take the lead in securing nuclear materials? How will China respond to the crossing of the 38th parallel by South Korean and US forces? Who will take the lead in reaching out to Pyongyang’s post-Kim regime? What will be the collective security architecture after the Korean peninsula is reunified?
These critical issues are deemed too sensitive for US, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean government officials to discuss. As a result, few are thinking about these difficult issues, let alone exploring workable solutions that could help avoid a possible conflict between China and the United States over a collapsing North Korea and construct an enduring peace after the departure of the Kim dynasty.
Given the lack of strategic trust among the key players in this volatile region, it’s probably a bad idea to count on government officials to have a sudden change of heart. Instead, a track-two approach, which consists of well-structured informal discussions and scenario planning among former government officials, academics and policy specialists, may be a first step forward. If nothing else, such privately sponsored efforts should put the most important and potentially most de-stabilizing issues on the table.
For Kim Jong-il’s Chinese hosts, even such a modest proposal may be anathema. But they would be in denial. All they need to do is to take a look at the photo of the sickly Kim and ask themselves a simple question: should we have a Plan B?
Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and adjunct senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment.
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Stop this madness!
Arent you all a shamed talking about collapse of Norh Korea, when every day people are killed in NK because their grandparents did something wrong, starved to death, tortured to death, watch their infants get killed or die by some biological weapon test in tens of camps in NK? http://freekorea.us/camps/25
Why is the world waiting Kim to die and wont stop this horror in NK today? When ppl in North will be free someday, the horrors they have seen will hount asia for decades. There are 25 million people in North Korea, who dont know what nightmare they are living through actually, and if they will realize it someday, and realize that world didnt help them for 30 years or more, then im sure they wont forgive us never. Some of us still dont believe what happened in nazi camps, and world promised that it wont happen again, so why?
chosop25
I understand your frustration. I found out about these issues only a few days ago and have been crying ever since. But it’s not the world, but South Korean governments and people who do not want unification at this time. It’s too inconvenient for them. However painful it is for NK people, their death would not have been in vain because now the world sees the insanity of power games, war games, giving up one’s own power to religion and government. Everyone is acting out of his own interest. But I do see the tide changing that the whole humanity is waking up to respect and love for one another. NK is only a mirror of human consciousness today. It is true that it will fall soon, and in the wake of its atrocity we will grow up that much more.
Lee
Chosop25- I disagree with the comment about South Korea not being ready for unification. The problem is you can’t just go rolling into North Korea, they are unstable and will immediately retaliate with their artillery, which is very large and will do extensive damage to Seoul. North Korea is not a mirror of human conciousness, sounds good though, it is a country that has ingrained their people with the thought that their leader is God like. From day 1 they arte taught that nothing matters but pleasing the dear leader. When this is all you know from the time of childhood, then it is truth. I agree with the fact that something needs to be done, many world powers have gone into countries that treated their people far better under the guise of freedom…so, what’s the answer? i wish I knew, I do know that there probably is a lot more involved than we as the public may know on the issue.
Abraham
The entirety of the Korean peninsula belong to the Korean people
who never refer to themselves as ’south’ korean or ‘north’ korean. If you go
to ‘South’ korea the maps there show no dividing line between the two states
that were created because the U.S. and Soviet Union could not comprise on a provisional government after WWII. Though, Koreans should have been allowed to participate into making their own government over a land populated by a distinct culture and language for thousands of years.
I think that the ‘main’ point why the neighboring states are silent on this matter and cooperating is because they all are ready to make some kind of claim in the event of N. Korean collapse. I wish journalists, particularly those who are not from the Orient, try to understand the ‘Korean’ issue on a deeper level. That in reality, most nations do not want the reunification of Korea. The economic burden is huge, the German comparison has been made, but in many ways this is not E. and W. Germany. The political clout implications and economic ones are absolutely ‘huge’ if Korea is finally reuinited more or less to its original self. This will primarily benefit Korea (over the long term the benefits are obvious, but I think the benefits will be engendered in a shorter time frame) and atler the balance of power , which tends to negatively affect the nations who want to maintain the status quo.
CEWilliamson
How wrong you are. Lived there for over twenty years and I know that the residents of the South on the peninsula are keanly aware of the border that the Korean people themselves helped to set into military demarcation. You are wrong about the maps in the South. There is the Hanminchok sentimentality in the South, especially among the anti-US follow the north faction. Consider the concept of Hanminchok in the North where the so-called DPRK Hanminchok inflict such cruelty upon that so-called Hanminchok there in the north – rediculous, racial concept to say the least as it is riddled with hypocracy.