By Minxin Pei
The Six-Party Talks are looking hopeless, says Minxin Pei. It’s time for policymakers to start planning for the worst. Now.
The motives behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s ‘unofficial’ visit to China last week may not be that hard to decipher. Most analysts suspect he went to see his most important patron to seek more aid and, in all likelihood, his Chinese patrons would have thrown a bone or two to him to bribe him back to the increasingly meaningless Six-Party Talks. But if the stakeholders in East Asia’s peace and stability focus their attention on whether China’s prodding will lead to a more fruitful outcome in dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme this time, they’re simply wasting their time.
Pyongyang’s record on this issue speaks for itself: North Korea has no intention of honouring its commitments to the Six-Party Talks or abandoning its nuclear capabilities.
Judging by recent developments inside North Korea, however, clinging on to its nukes may not actually help prolong Kim Jong-il’s regime. The country’s unfolding economic catastrophe has clearly taken a toll on the regime’s legitimacy and durability—only the most desperate governments in history have resorted to outright confiscation of its people’s money. Seasoned analysts have also reported rising popular resentment against Pyongyang. Thanks to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and other efforts to weaken Kim Jong-il’s regime, North Korea has failed to blackmail the international community into supplying more economic assistance.
More importantly, the Kim Jong-il regime, which has become a classic family dictatorship, is about to face its most difficult test of survival: succession. Stricken by a stroke not too long ago, Kim Jong-il is in frail health and his hold on power is certain to weaken. He appears desperate to install his 27-year old son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. Unfortunately for the Kim dynasty, this process is likely to end in failure. A review of transfers of power in modern family dictatorships (excluding traditional monarchies) shows that the chances of a successful succession from the first-generation dictator to his son are roughly one in four, and no grandson of a first-generation dictator has ever succeeded in taking over a regime and consolidating his power.
Of course, the Kim dynasty may set a precedent. But given the worsening economy, the inexperience of the putative successor and the unknown reliability of the Korean military and security forces in the event of Kim Jong-il’s death, the rest of East Asia should be prepared for a scenario of rapid collapse in North Korea.
Photo Credit: Wiki Commons
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Stop this madness!
Arent you all a shamed talking about collapse of Norh Korea, when every day people are killed in NK because their grandparents did something wrong, starved to death, tortured to death, watch their infants get killed or die by some biological weapon test in tens of camps in NK? http://freekorea.us/camps/25
Why is the world waiting Kim to die and wont stop this horror in NK today? When ppl in North will be free someday, the horrors they have seen will hount asia for decades. There are 25 million people in North Korea, who dont know what nightmare they are living through actually, and if they will realize it someday, and realize that world didnt help them for 30 years or more, then im sure they wont forgive us never. Some of us still dont believe what happened in nazi camps, and world promised that it wont happen again, so why?
chosop25
I understand your frustration. I found out about these issues only a few days ago and have been crying ever since. But it’s not the world, but South Korean governments and people who do not want unification at this time. It’s too inconvenient for them. However painful it is for NK people, their death would not have been in vain because now the world sees the insanity of power games, war games, giving up one’s own power to religion and government. Everyone is acting out of his own interest. But I do see the tide changing that the whole humanity is waking up to respect and love for one another. NK is only a mirror of human consciousness today. It is true that it will fall soon, and in the wake of its atrocity we will grow up that much more.
Lee
Chosop25- I disagree with the comment about South Korea not being ready for unification. The problem is you can’t just go rolling into North Korea, they are unstable and will immediately retaliate with their artillery, which is very large and will do extensive damage to Seoul. North Korea is not a mirror of human conciousness, sounds good though, it is a country that has ingrained their people with the thought that their leader is God like. From day 1 they arte taught that nothing matters but pleasing the dear leader. When this is all you know from the time of childhood, then it is truth. I agree with the fact that something needs to be done, many world powers have gone into countries that treated their people far better under the guise of freedom…so, what’s the answer? i wish I knew, I do know that there probably is a lot more involved than we as the public may know on the issue.
Abraham
The entirety of the Korean peninsula belong to the Korean people
who never refer to themselves as ’south’ korean or ‘north’ korean. If you go
to ‘South’ korea the maps there show no dividing line between the two states
that were created because the U.S. and Soviet Union could not comprise on a provisional government after WWII. Though, Koreans should have been allowed to participate into making their own government over a land populated by a distinct culture and language for thousands of years.
I think that the ‘main’ point why the neighboring states are silent on this matter and cooperating is because they all are ready to make some kind of claim in the event of N. Korean collapse. I wish journalists, particularly those who are not from the Orient, try to understand the ‘Korean’ issue on a deeper level. That in reality, most nations do not want the reunification of Korea. The economic burden is huge, the German comparison has been made, but in many ways this is not E. and W. Germany. The political clout implications and economic ones are absolutely ‘huge’ if Korea is finally reuinited more or less to its original self. This will primarily benefit Korea (over the long term the benefits are obvious, but I think the benefits will be engendered in a shorter time frame) and atler the balance of power , which tends to negatively affect the nations who want to maintain the status quo.
CEWilliamson
How wrong you are. Lived there for over twenty years and I know that the residents of the South on the peninsula are keanly aware of the border that the Korean people themselves helped to set into military demarcation. You are wrong about the maps in the South. There is the Hanminchok sentimentality in the South, especially among the anti-US follow the north faction. Consider the concept of Hanminchok in the North where the so-called DPRK Hanminchok inflict such cruelty upon that so-called Hanminchok there in the north – rediculous, racial concept to say the least as it is riddled with hypocracy.