In February, the Center for Naval Analysis issued a report suggesting that none of this is hyperbole: the US Navy is at the tipping point, about to abandon its position of maritime superiority. So accustomed to being militarily superior, the United States is under the delusion that it could maintain sea control in Asia.
Third, China has mastered quiet air-independent propulsion (AIP) power plants for its new Type 041 Yuan-class boats. AIP extends underwater endurance from a few days to one month, and enables submarines to sprint underwater—greatly increasing their attack radius. Reportedly quieter than the US fast attack Los Angeles-class boats, the elusive AIP diesel electrics are equipped with wake-honing torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles. In one incident in October 2006, an ultra-quiet Song–class AIP submarine surfaced inside the protective screen of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk.
Fourth, China’s geographic position, with short and secure internal lines of communication, is a force multiplier. All of Beijing’s warships and land-based aircraft and submarines already are present in theater. Chinese ground command and control is connected by spoof-proof hard-wire landlines.
Fifth, China is riding a wave of national overconfidence at the same time many regard the United States as preoccupied with counter-insurgency in central Asia, strategically listless and brooding. Brimming with uncontained satisfaction—even joy—at its relentless ascent, China is overflowing with ethnic and cultural pride and itching to ‘teach lessons’ and settle old scores. These emotions fuel a ballooning sense of past wrongs to be compensated and future entitlements to be seized. Any maritime conflict with the United States (or Japan) will push China teetering over the edge of a war fever not seen since the Guns of August.
These developments don’t leave a lot of room for optimism. Caught up in the fanfare of the country’s meteoric rise, China behaves like the gangly teenager who, upon suddenly experiencing a growth spurt, clumsily begins to throw around his weight. Moreover, as the United States buckles under the strain of enormous budget deficits, the prospect is remote that the US Navy alone will recalibrate the balance of sea power.
This suggests two outcomes. The first is that China will indeed achieve its goal of becoming the Asian hegemonic power, dominant not only on land, but in the Western Pacific. The second possibility is that other nations—foremost among them Japan and India—but also including virtually every other nation in the region from Russia to Vietnam, will begin to think more overtly about collective measures and how they can balance the growing power of Beijing.
Commander James Kraska, JAGC, U.S. Navy, serves as the Howard S. Levie Chair of Operational Law at the U.S. Naval War College and Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views presented do not represent the official policy or position of the United States.
[1] Erik Eckholm, “China Complains About U.S. Surveillance Ship,” The New York Times, September 27, 2002, p. 13.
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james_002
Why do you delete my comment censorship?
obsthetimes
the countries you’ve mentioned are minnows compared to the whale that is china. China does not need to ‘take over’ countries but only make them bow to its wishes.
Japan’s pacifist constitution makes countering china impossible. The US should lean on Japan to alter its constitution.
miki
“China is a massive threat to Western World” should be rephrased as “the Yellow Peril is a massive threat to the Western World”!
Perhaps its time to bring on the Opium War II? before its too late?
Communist China could not be a threat to any one until the regime can afford to spend 500+ billions a year for at least a decade on its military. its not going to happen in my live time! So go have a drink enjoy life in peace for the next few decades!
HHyap
Now, the colonial mentality has spoken, bring on the opium war and show the world how the big used to bully, with force.
Please initiate it, just talk will only show your gutless attitude.
Let the war begin and we all shall see the result.
Don’t be a coward.
wilson
I find it revealing that China is described as ‘increasingly provocative’ when it attempts to disrupt ‘routine’ U.S. military manoeuvres! Guess where these ‘routine’ manoeuvres took place? The East China sea. Now who exactly is being ‘provocative’ here?
Whenever I hear a story, I simply switch the players and the location and reapply the rhetoric.
Here, China’s military is ‘routinely’ manoeuvring around the coast of America. The ‘provocative’ Americans attempt to disrupt these manoeuvres. Who in their right mind wouldn’t howl with laughter if the Chinese wrote something like that?
Why do we accept such obvious bullshit from western sources?
obsthetimes
Without the US navy patrolling in ‘International waters’ off China, the Chinese would willy nilly just bully every country in the region. Just becuase it is named the ’south china sea’ does not mean it belongs to china. You comment exposed your view point, that korea, japan, phillipines and vietnam just dont count!
J Baker
Where’s the proof for what you’ve just claimed? If you cannot prove what you said, you are just a nutcase who simply spouts what he wants to say without rhyme, reason nor facts. A fruitcake.
Derrick
The US will always counter any rising power in Asia…the US economy depends on access to cheap labor in China and other countries so any attempt by any nation to obtain naval hegemony will be challenged by the US.
Also, it is unsafe to assume the US would not use tactical nuclear weapons in a first strike capacity if it got involved in any type of military or naval confrontation in Asia. First off, most rising powers have a higher number of troops/ships/etc., so in a conventional conflict, their massive advantage in numbers pretty much necessitates the US use tactical nuclear weapons.
So to go down that route, any attempt by China to dominate the South China Seas is pointless because it will inevitably boil down to a nuclear confrontation, and the US has a lot more nuclear weapons than China.
Henry Seng
In regards to the debate between Ly Tran Le and Jeff, it’s rather passionate and personal. I have to agree with Jeff. We’re not even in the game, an economic game. China, a military threat? Ridiculous! Sure, they spend a few dollars to modernize their military, which is still small and backward. Why shouldn’t they? They can afford it. What we should be looking at is what they’re spending on: major infrastructure projects, like roads, bridges, railways, dams, power plants, solar power technology, electric car technology, etc. This country is going to be so competitive. We think the Japanese are competitive. Just wait and see, if you have not noticed it, yet. Simply put, we have a few giants like Bill Gates and Warren Buffet, but they’re going to have a lot more. It may sound a little bit prejudice, but is not. These guys are serious economic warriors. This communism in that country was just a fluke. We’re wasting our resources in the wrong area, the military that is.
mandrewsf
China is not a threat. PLAN lacks the technology, military spending and naval experience to make it a credible challenge of U.S. naval hegemony. Note that China does not even have an aircraft carrier yet, and the two under construction are relatively backward diesel-powered platforms. And even if China could field a credible surface fleet, its weakness in air power (i.e. its lack of 5th generation fighters) will mean that most of its ships are in mortal peril if a war with the U.S. does break out.
Also, the only possible cause for a war between China and the U.S. is if a war in Taiwan breaks out. This will only happen if Taiwan declares unilateral independence, but the U.S. also pledged to not defend Taiwan if Taiwan did do something so foolhardy.
Meanwhile, drop the Impeccable incident please… The only thing this incident shows is that China no longer lack the power project capacities to project naval power beyond immediate coastal regions. Naturally they would not then tolerate U.S. surveillance ships strolling around its top secret sub bases. That’s not really saying much about Chinese “aggression.”
obsthetimes
Did you not read the article about the Dong Feng Carrier killer missile? Why is this missile being developed if China is only interested in a ‘peaceful rise’.
Michael
I’m no expert, but it seems to me that most (if not all) of these arguments could also apply to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Unless China has plans to take these countries over before they can build their own ASBNs and air forces, its hegemony would only last for a short time.