Chinese policymakers say the country’s rapidly modernizing nuclear force is nothing to fear. They could do more to prove it.
Writing in the Liberation Army Daily, a prominent Chinese military newspaper, retired Maj. Gen. Xu Guangyu argued that China needed a limited nuclear force capable of surviving and retaliating against a first strike by any adversary. The article marked another effort by the Chinese leadership to display greater openness in its nuclear declaratory policy, and reinforces other statements and indications that China has adopted a ‘second-strike’ nuclear policy based on a minimal deterrent.
Yet, these and similar statements still might not be enough to overcome the reluctance of some US and Russian officials to reduce their countries’ nuclear forces much further without greater evidence that China will join the nuclear disarmament process.
Unlike the United States and Russia, the Chinese government has yet to adopt legally binding limits on its nuclear weapons or strategic nuclear delivery vehicles. Beijing’s nuclear policies are an important component of the global and regional balance of power and China is both a rising international power and the only acknowledged nuclear weapons state in East Asia. Constraining China’s nuclear build-up is a prerequisite for achieving further global nuclear arms control and for reassuring China’s anxious neighbours.
In terms of capabilities, Xu argued that Beijing sought a nuclear arsenal that ‘is able, should a foe launch an initial nuclear strike, to really possess, and to convince the other side that it faces, an intolerable second-strike nuclear capability, thereby deterring an enemy from using nuclear weapons against us.’ Xu, currently a researcher in the government-run China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, explained that his country’s nuclear capabilities ‘must make them grasp, without the least ambiguity, that we possess a deterrent.’
But although China appears to be modernizing its nuclear forces more rapidly than any of the five established nuclear weapons states, Xu sought to downplay foreign concerns, arguing that, ‘The most basic feature of China’s nuclear strategy, in a nutshell, is to be a deterrent but present no threat.’ Xu later told Reuters that his commentary intentionally sought to overcome concerns in India, Japan, and the United States about China’s nuclear modernization program.
The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released by the Obama administration earlier this month stated ‘the United States and China’s Asian neighbours remain concerned about the pace and scope of China’s current military modernization efforts, including its quantitative and qualitative modernization of its nuclear capabilities….the lack of transparency surrounding its programs—their pace and scope as well as the strategy and doctrine guiding them—raises questions about China’s future strategic intentions.’
Photo Credit: Unipress Photo
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Ivan Wang
Reports indicate the PLA are developing a carrier missile killer.This has caused the Pentagon to find ways to defeat such a threat.From my observation it can be two ways. The defence dept may conjure a threat to suck more money from the American tax player for new weapons or the threat from China could be genuine.We won’t know for sure until the shooting starts whic I pray will never happen.
The Chinese aint itching for a fight with the US.They want to make sure they have the means to defend themselves/prevent coercion from the US as in the past.I am 100% /200% sure if China were like Kosovo,Taiwan could well have become independent.The reason is the PLA could destroy Taiwan and devastate US forces sent to help Taiwan.If the US were to inflict more destruction on China,the PLA could likewise cause significant/enormous/unacceptable damage on the conus.
That is why the cmk/d ie carrier missile killer/destroyer is making the Pentagon edgy.
It is not a game changer because the US will still prevail but it aint willing to pay the price. In a war with the PLA,the pentagon will know it is not tangling with Kosovo/Vietnam/Iraq .Btw the fiscal will bite and US forces will be gradually withdrawn from oversea bases.It will take at least fifty years by my reckoning.
Mekhong Kurt
Mr. Wang, you may want to keep an eye out to see if you run across any reports like a few I have regarding the “carrier-killer” missile. A *few* reports have said there are signs China has run into trouble that were both unexpected and significant in the missile’s capabilities. However, I want to stress that I simply don’t know how reliable my sources were.
The challenge must be enormous, especially regarding active targeting. To hit a moving target, unless it’s close in, isn’t an easy task, as fighter pilots with combat experience can attest. (Not me, by the way.) Who knows what kind of electronic protective gear a modern carrier may have at it’s disposal.
All that said, if China does succeed in developing such a weapon, it will give any naval commander excellent reason to pause and reflect. Deployed along the southern China coast (and maybe Hainan Island) would — if the estimated range I’ve read are accurate — give China a formidable force over the northern half of the South China Sea. Add some more on the Spratleys and the Paracel’s, and it would have that force availabe across the entire sea, plus, depending on base locations, the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea. And, for instance, part of the Philippine Sea, The Strait of Malacca, and parts of the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal. Incidentally, if they were to run missile bases right up their east coast, they could hit waters east of Japan, the entire Sea of Japan, and even southern portions of the Sea of Okhotsk. The Russians would be unhappy about the threat to Vladivostok — headquarters of their Pacific Fleet.)
Enjoyed reading your comment.
Albert Twain
Nuclear weapons are never for defense, they are purely offensive. During the cold war russia and the US hopped to gain a decisive adventage, at which point they would have lauched.
This was an era where generals were old school, with no scientific formation, and didn’t understood the danger posed by nuclear weapons. This changed after 3-miles-island (us disaster) and tchernobil (soviet disaster).
Today’s generals in the US and russia understand that nuke are a menace to the planetary survival. (At least I hope so) and are moving toward new systems which make nukes obsolete. Some of thoses are close to science fiction but their reality was clearly demonstrated in tests.
I am deeply worried about China’s unrealistic stance. Are the chinese generals lacking in scientific teaching ? (for considering nukes) Are they lacking in
up to date tactical briefing (for not understanding nukes are no longer a deterant, they’re obsolete).
I’m even more worried that, considering China was deeply affected by the current environmental crisis (desertification, floods, earthquake, etc) they are not focusing on that instead of military posturing. Indeed they even push to exploit oil in the artic, instead of using their might to prevent other countries from exploiting the artic.
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You’re behind in the news. Missile shields are obsolete. The new system destroy the missile silo (hopefully before they lauched). Worst case, one missile will be lauched per silo before the sillo is destroyed. The strategy here is preventing missile from exploding in the atmosphere, to avoid causing techernobil-like cloud over china. Believe it or not, the US don’t want chinese to get hurt.
The newer anti-nuke system that disable the missiles in flight isn’t missile powered, and is intantaneous (almost science fiction). The old missile shield system still exist of course, but is kind of redundant.
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China and russia been conducting joint millitary exercise. I sincerely hope their leaders review their tactics before they worsten the environemental disater. Doesn’t Russia have some fires to put out in the forests ? Doesn’t China have better things to do like reclaiming the desert ? Isn’t it time for those two countries to prove they can do something positive ? China is the oldest civilisation, and some say the wisest. Isn’t it time to rise up to the opportunity and prove yourself
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to the editor (not part of my comments)
Now let’s see if this comment get up or is censored… ;D
This site strikes me as odd.
So far I only see chinese posters here, most of them have odd position, verry different from the chinese friends I have. It seems … fake…
I mean, we’re in the 21st century, I can’t believe someone in china would be pro nuclear war. even in the cold war era, only the craziest russian/american generals had such theories and positions. most other genrals were more reserved.
as for the general population, in both countries, they were against
so who are those posters ?
James
Heard of the Pom saying ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’
Or re-quoted, ‘Deterrent is the best Defense’
If you are weak,Others will meddle in your nation’s affair,as in Iraq and Libya.
So the best defense is to be strong.
Peter Hwang
During the peak of the cold war in the mid 50s to the 60s, US strategy called for the destruction of Red China as it was then known in the event of war between the US and soviet union. Furthermore, other Communist countries like NK,Vietnam and eastern Europe were also targeted. This info can be found in the Freedom of Info Act.
So to the US and its deputy sheriff,Australia,and possee Japan,China is a big threat when it develops the military. In other words, China is the bad guy and the the US the good guy as shown in the films. Well how many wars has the US fought since WW2? It has attacked defenceless countries like Iraq on the flimsy excuse it had WMD.The 9/11 destruction is nothing compared to US bombing operations in Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam.US forces are meant to defend the US、 but it is programmed to attack others including China if need be.This is to defend the US from nuclear attack and to defend freedom and democracy.This is figment disguised to attack. Which country in the world is going to attack the US since it is all powerful?
Well when the US attacks,the victim must not be allowed to hit back.Yes it can use nuclear weapons, but others cannot. For the first time in US military history, if the US were to attack China the PLA can devastate US bases outside the US. It’s not only that the Chinese are capable of inflicting unacceptable damage on the CONUS.
Hence the Americans feel very uncomfortable.Yes I know the US will prevail but it ain’t willing to pay the price.Hence the noises about PLA modernisation.The Chinese need not seek mad or parity with US forces.
They are developing the military so that the US won’t think it will be a cheap victory like the Gulf war/opium war or just sending the ac to the Taiwan Straits without firing a tomahawk missile. All good things must come to an end some day.
Btw, so far the US has fought and prevailed against 3rd/4th rate teams. Team China is not in the same league as the US but it will able to score goals against the US which is forbidden. This is something which the other teams are unable to.
Hwang Sze Kwang
China’s nw are for defence. It has only a handful of icbm which the US can easily destroy. Wait a minute. It aint as easy as that.This is not the 50s when US atomic bomb blackmail coerced the Chinese.The Chinese may have more than that and are making a US n attack will cause the PLA to retaliate causing significant/insignificant damage on the conus.The price for a na/victory for the US has gone up and will continue to go up.
Even the planned missile shield won’t make the US immune from Chinese retaliation.The Chinese are modernising thier defences. Is that a threat?
maybe to US forces attacking China. The US cannot expects its forces to be free from counter attack like in Kosovo/Iraq/afghanistan.