The danger of this development became clear last year when Iranian government representatives suggested that if Russia refused to fulfil its contract to deliver advanced S-300 air defence systems to Iran, they would instead buy a PRC-made system, the HongQi-9/FD-2000 surface-to-air missile. Although this transfer didn’t happen, Western and Israeli pressure on Russia to constrain its arms sales to Iran has already led to Tehran emerging as the second-largest purchaser of Chinese weapons during the past 5 years, buying 14 percent of China’s military exports by value. From 2005 through 2009, Iranian imports from China included over 1,000 anti-air and anti-ship missiles as well as about 50 infantry combat vehicles.
Until now, Russian officials have resigned themselves to selling a significantly lower volume of weapons to China rather than risk exporting its most sophisticated weapons to the PRC. Anatoly Isaikin, general director of Rosoboronexport, predicts that Chinese purchases in coming years will amount to only 10 percent of Russian arms exports. Fears of Chinese copying reportedly led the Russian government to reassess the wisdom of selling highly advanced Su-33 planes for possible use on future Chinese aircraft carriers. The Russian press reports that the Chinese asked to buy only two Su-33 planes for a ‘trial.’
One reason for Russian equanimity is that, for the moment, Moscow has many alternative military clients. According to the latest SIPRI data, Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of major conventional weapons, behind the United States. The Asia-Pacific region is the main destination for major Russian arms, accounting for more than two-thirds of Russian defence exports during the 2005–2009 period. Combat aircraft were Russia’s best export item, comprising 40 percent of Russia’s global sales. India purchased 82 Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft during the last 5 years, while Malaysia bought 18 of these planes.
But this favourable environment might change quickly if Russian domestic military purchases decrease again, if India (the other major buyer of Russian weapons) imports fewer weapons and if the anticipated compensatory growth of new markets for Russian military exports fails to occur.
Ultimately, despite their reservations, Russian officials might weigh the risks of selling the most advanced weapons to China a little differently if they consider the alternative—another possible collapse of their defence industry.
Richard Weitz is a senior fellow and director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Political-Military Analysis.
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Yang tsup
russia can look on other nation to sell it arms.. and must keep refusing to sell their most advance weapons to china.
child
@frank
so, china proud of copying other’s tech..
what a shame..
wasantha
it is not a shame. you wear trouncers invented by great Chinese people.
Peter Pan
Copying is a natural act of conservation.
Why reinvent the wheel when you can copy…less wastage in time,material personnel.
In the car industry, it is fairly rampant.Just look around and you will see that all the latest model cars has certain features that look alike, like the BMW wedge tail,the front and tail lights,body sculpture etc.
In fact, you cannot get away from the feeling that they look alike!!!
Frank
The reason that China is the longest surviving civilization on this earth is because Chinese people’s capabilities and willingness to learn from other people fast.
If that means Chinese has to copy from others, so be it. Sooner or later, they will have to copy from Chinese.
Take a look as China’s history. Chinese are not the strongest people. Not stronger than Huns. However, by learning from Huns, Chinese drove them out of Asia.
Tibet was far stronger and larger than China. Look where they are today.
Same can be said about Manchu and Mongol.
Chinese did not invent trains. Today, China has the longest and the fastest railways on earth.
Chinese did not invent cars. Today, China produces more cars than anybody else.
Just wait and see the great resurrection of a great nation is happening.
YiJiun
Is that the J-20? Or are you refering to latest generation in development?
Actually, Russia’s greatest mistake is to take advantage of this potential greatest ally. Looks like it still hasn’t come round to why the former Soviet Union disintegrated so terribly! Don’t underestimate the role of China which can add great value to the Soviet Union if it were an ally. Just do the Math: to have an ally to strengthen you becoming a foe which you have to waste defence money guarding. It has doubling effect. Worse is that this foe joins the US and the effect multiplies being of close proximity in geographic terms and in the past, you can focus on Europe, now you got pinced both to the East and West!
Looks like Russia is doomed to fail.
UBOAT
The article was fair enough and some info is wrong, China for its airforce does depend on russian engines but china has alternate plans working on different engines avionics and their immense investment in r&d their technology is equally superior to the so called superior technology that russian was unwilling to provide thus the out come is russia losing export markets. It is already projected that by 2015 China would have superior fighter engines/airlines-engines/Warships/military vehicles-tanks planes and other weapons and by 2020 China eliminate Russia as the world’s second largest military good’s export.
So a decade is not a big deal for China all focus is on developmental work and R&D. What will be the outcome when china has its own airlines/its own better tanks/its own equal to S-500 missiles/Its own superior ground radars-AESA radars for fighter jets/better satellites and communication equipment and vice versa not to forget its own military transports and AWACS. I see the demise of Russian arms market in atleast 12 years more as Its not about soviet has stuff of soviet era infact they still are still 86% using their own soviet era technologies thus the article saying russians have great stuff not for sale is very limited in production since russia has not much cash to develop produce and invest in r&d while China has one thing that is Cash $$$ to invest and that is making them stronger day by day. I would assume in 12 Years China would be second in the market eliminating russia thus bringing them to the 3rd position.