Chinese advances and Russian suspicion have led to a shift in the arms sales balance, says Richard Weitz. But for how long?
Last week, Russia delivered 15 additional batteries of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to China, making good on an about 2 billion dollar deal signed in the mid-2000s. Yet despite the publicity surrounding the sale, the Russian-Chinese arms transfer relationship is in trouble.
Recent years have seen a precipitous fall in Chinese purchases of Russian military equipment and technologies. Whereas until a few years ago Beijing was buying large quantities of Moscow’s surplus Soviet-era military products, during the past few years the Chinese have declined to purchase any major weapons systems from Russia.
China has already acquired about a dozen S-300 batteries from Russia under contracts signed in previous years. But the S-300 is a Soviet-era air defence system, with each battery consisting of four truck-mounted launchers each holding four missile tubes. And, although the late-model versions of the S-300 (dubbed ‘The Favourite’ by Russians) delivered a few days ago are highly capable, the Russian military is phasing out the system’s use. Russian units are replacing it with the more effective S-400 (code-named ‘Triumph’ by NATO), which has additional capabilities against stealthy targets as well as some ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Russia’s defence industry is now developing an even more advanced surface-to-air missile system, the S-500, which is potentially capable of intercepting targets in outer space flying at hypersonic speeds of five kilometres a second.
Last week’s shipment underscores two key features of the current Russia-China arms transfer relationship. First, Russia is presently sending China only weapons systems based on Soviet-era technology, most of which were manufactured during the Soviet era. Second, China purchased these items several years ago. In recent years, in contrast, China has largely stopped buying complete weapons systems from Russia, primarily because the Chinese defence industry can now match Soviet-era technologies, while Russia refuses to sell China its most advanced weapons.
This change has transformed the shape of Sino-Russian commerce. Whereas before 2007 Russia racked up steady trade surpluses, during the past three years the terms of trade have abruptly shifted in China’s favour. Today, China overwhelmingly buys commodities, especially natural resources like oil and timber, from Russia. Many of these items have fallen sharply in value due to declining world prices. In contrast, Russians have been purchasing a growing volume of Chinese electronics, automobiles, consumer appliances and machinery.
In the past, Moscow could count on Beijing buying numerous high-tech weapons systems from Russia’s military industrial complex. And following the decision by Western governments to impose an arms embargo on China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident—a ban that remains largely in force today—China emerged as one of the most reliable clients of Russian defence items.
Photo Credit: Alex / Flickr
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Yang tsup
russia can look on other nation to sell it arms.. and must keep refusing to sell their most advance weapons to china.
child
@frank
so, china proud of copying other’s tech..
what a shame..
wasantha
it is not a shame. you wear trouncers invented by great Chinese people.
Peter Pan
Copying is a natural act of conservation.
Why reinvent the wheel when you can copy…less wastage in time,material personnel.
In the car industry, it is fairly rampant.Just look around and you will see that all the latest model cars has certain features that look alike, like the BMW wedge tail,the front and tail lights,body sculpture etc.
In fact, you cannot get away from the feeling that they look alike!!!
Frank
The reason that China is the longest surviving civilization on this earth is because Chinese people’s capabilities and willingness to learn from other people fast.
If that means Chinese has to copy from others, so be it. Sooner or later, they will have to copy from Chinese.
Take a look as China’s history. Chinese are not the strongest people. Not stronger than Huns. However, by learning from Huns, Chinese drove them out of Asia.
Tibet was far stronger and larger than China. Look where they are today.
Same can be said about Manchu and Mongol.
Chinese did not invent trains. Today, China has the longest and the fastest railways on earth.
Chinese did not invent cars. Today, China produces more cars than anybody else.
Just wait and see the great resurrection of a great nation is happening.
YiJiun
Is that the J-20? Or are you refering to latest generation in development?
Actually, Russia’s greatest mistake is to take advantage of this potential greatest ally. Looks like it still hasn’t come round to why the former Soviet Union disintegrated so terribly! Don’t underestimate the role of China which can add great value to the Soviet Union if it were an ally. Just do the Math: to have an ally to strengthen you becoming a foe which you have to waste defence money guarding. It has doubling effect. Worse is that this foe joins the US and the effect multiplies being of close proximity in geographic terms and in the past, you can focus on Europe, now you got pinced both to the East and West!
Looks like Russia is doomed to fail.
UBOAT
The article was fair enough and some info is wrong, China for its airforce does depend on russian engines but china has alternate plans working on different engines avionics and their immense investment in r&d their technology is equally superior to the so called superior technology that russian was unwilling to provide thus the out come is russia losing export markets. It is already projected that by 2015 China would have superior fighter engines/airlines-engines/Warships/military vehicles-tanks planes and other weapons and by 2020 China eliminate Russia as the world’s second largest military good’s export.
So a decade is not a big deal for China all focus is on developmental work and R&D. What will be the outcome when china has its own airlines/its own better tanks/its own equal to S-500 missiles/Its own superior ground radars-AESA radars for fighter jets/better satellites and communication equipment and vice versa not to forget its own military transports and AWACS. I see the demise of Russian arms market in atleast 12 years more as Its not about soviet has stuff of soviet era infact they still are still 86% using their own soviet era technologies thus the article saying russians have great stuff not for sale is very limited in production since russia has not much cash to develop produce and invest in r&d while China has one thing that is Cash $$$ to invest and that is making them stronger day by day. I would assume in 12 Years China would be second in the market eliminating russia thus bringing them to the 3rd position.