The Burmese junta rarely responds to international pressure. Over the years, a series of high profile politicians and diplomats have all been used by the regime in what amounts to nothing more than charade. Eventually, the ‘meaningful discussions’ meander into nothing. Meanwhile the army continues to attack ethnic communities, political prisoners are tortured and the regime tightens its grip on control. Each time the regime manages to sideline and reduce the international community to little more than frustrated spectators playing catch-up.
And this time it is no different—the international community is committed to an election, but a fair and free election is looking more and more like a pipedream. If the electoral laws are allowed to stand unchanged, the regime has its political opponents right where they want them—divided.
In the last three years, Burma was involved in three events that have shocked the world; the Saffron Revolution crackdown, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath and the unprovoked Burma army attacks on ethnic villagers in eastern Burma.
On each occasion the junta’s leaders, in spite of criticism, have managed to avoid a UN Security Council inquiry or an inquiry into crimes against humanity, due largely to support for the regime from Council members China and Russia.
The 16th ASEAN Summit in Vietnam in early April offers an opportunity for its members to lobby the regime over its electoral laws and the inclusion of Aung San Suu Kyi in the country’s election, but Khun Myint Tun says he doesn’t hold out much hope, considering ASEAN’s past support for the regime.
Against this dismal background, and what has been a bad month for Burma’s political opposition, the UN’s Quintana report is the only positive. In his report, Quintana said his mission to Burma in February raised serious doubts for a fair election, and he noted restrictions on freedoms of expression, assembly and association had not been lifted.
On March 24, the UK government offered its support to Quintana’s call for the establishment of a UN Commission of Inquiry to investigate crimes against humanity and war crimes perpetrated by the Burma regime. Its ambassador to the United Nations, Mark Lyell Grant, says Britain would support the referral of a case to the International Criminal Court, a statement that followed the Australian government’s decision to back any commission of inquiry.
But if this fails, then Burma’s political opposition will be left with the unappetizing choice of boycotting the election or going to the polls knowing they may well be effectively rigged. Either way the generals win.
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