As Russia and China vie for access to its minerals, Mongolia has turned to the US as a counterweight. But is its democracy safe?
For most of the last several centuries, Mongolia has been controlled by one of its two superpower neighbours. China ruled Mongolia for more than 200 years, a reign that ended only with the collapse of the Manchu empire in 1911. Just a few years later, a communist government, subservient to the Soviet Union, took over.
So when Mongolia achieved true independence in 1990 as the Soviet Union was collapsing, its new leaders were faced with a quandary, one that remains unresolved today: how best to maintain functional independence sandwiched between China and Russia.
Lately, this question has become even more urgent, as miners have started to unlock Mongolia’s vast mineral wealth. In October 2009, the Mongolian government signed a $5 billion agreement—worth as much as the country’s annual gross domestic product—with international mining companies to exploit the Oyu Tolgoi mine in the southern Gobi Desert, expected to yield a billion pounds of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold every year for at least 35 years. The country also has substantial coal and uranium reserves.
Those prospects have raised the stakes, particularly for China, which is hungry for raw materials to feed its dynamic economy. But it worries Mongolians, who fear that China has irredentist claims on its territory. As a result, Mongolia’s leaders have tried to maintain a delicate balancing act, keeping the Chinese investment they need while staving off political influence from Beijing by courting other international partners.
This is no more in evidence than in a throwback to a key element of 19th-century geopolitical competition: railroads.
The coal mine at Tavan Tolgoi, near the copper-gold Oyu Tolgoi mine in the Gobi near Mongolia’s border with China, is the biggest undeveloped mine in the world, and has drawn the interest of the world’s top mining companies. It’s expected to produce 50 million tons of coal per year when it’s developed.
That will require a new rail line to be built from the mine site to existing railroads and eventually to China, which is expected to consume all, or nearly all, of the coal from Taval Tolgoi. But the nearest existing Mongolian railway is 400 kilometres away.
So a far shorter and cheaper option would be to build a line directly south, to China, about 80 kilometres from the mine. The holding company that now owns Tavan Tolgoi, Energy Resources LLC, plans to build a private rail line along that path and has agreed to a contract with Deutsche Bahn AG, Germany’s state-owned railway, to conduct a feasibility study. Deutsche Bahn has said it plans to start running trains on the line by 2011.
But the Mongolian government has balked at the plans. It worries that connecting the mine to the Chinese rail system and not the Mongolian one would allow China too much effective control over the mine, as well as others in the same area, like Oyu Tolgoi, that are likely to use the rail line if it’s built.
Photo Credit: Uniphoto Press
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MongolLanguage
I always lmao@ the so called mongolians claim they want to be independent.
Nowadays, the outter mongolia don’t even have their own written script anymore, the Russians have forced the outter mongols to take on the Russian Cyrillic letters for over a century. Them outter mongols have to travel to China to study their traditional mongolian transcript. How ironic. The Chinese is now teaching the mongols how to write in their very own language. That’s the outter mongol pride for you.
colleen Milic
I agree with Greg. I believe Mongolia will rise again and will be feared as she was before. So many think it will be Germany.
Tuya
It’s not true that China ruled Mongolia for 200 years. That was the Manchu Empire which ruled both Mongolia and China. The Manchu Empire was established by the Manchus, not by the Chinese. China was conquered by the Manchus not without support of Mongolians, btw.
LOL
If Mongolia refuses to trade natural resources with China, China will simply steamroll Mongolia, and seize Mongolia’s resources if need be.
B.Causeiknow
One should not forget that China invaded and, now, refers to a part of Mongolia as Chinese territory. It is obvious that Tibetans are not Chinese, just as the mongols are not Chinese.
Another example of China’s subtle expansionism – north (Mongolia), south (China Sea), east (Korea) and west (India), etc..
SCdad07
B.Causeiknow:
Please accept Genghis khan’s grandson, Kublai Khan, who had his capital established at Beijing. If ‘Outer(Northern) Mongolia’ is setting her own path, She is free to do so as I have not read any action by China to disrupt her desire.
China, unlike US, has no military base outside her territory. Please present your arguments.
Qing
the Manchus are Chinese. They are not Han but they are Chinese. The name “China” actually came from the Qing Dynasty.
len-nin
??!! Making comments like this without proof or evidence could backfire on you instead. The immediate reaction by many readers is that you must be from cuckooland. It will be interesting to know where and how you came to this conclusion.
Alan
Chinese as American in the sense of belonging to a country, not a race.
Len-nin
I am shocked at the manipulation of replies here. This above reply was not “Qing”.
antman
It may be true that it was the manchus who extablished the ydansty, but eventually over time the Manchus became sinicised and lost their language, becoming more Han than manchu, am I not correct?
Michael
I read once that, when the Imperial Japanese tried to invade Mongolia, they found willing helpers in the tribes of Inner Mongolia who didn’t feel much kinship with their Outer Mongolian kin. I’m not an expert on the subject and can’t guarantee that I’m remembering the facts correctly, but this does suggest a question to be asked about these mineral resources: Do the tribes controlling these areas feel closer to their Chinese-dominated cousins to the south (who would benefit from the Chinese proposal) or to their own government?
Ariunka
It is crucial for Mongolia to attract interests of its two giant neighbors as well as third neighbor in which all of the western countries and Japan and S.Korea should be included in order to seal our independence. In order to geniunely be a third neighbor, our Third Neighbor policy has to work toward attracting the investments of western countries thereby really engraining the political and economic interests of western countries. By saying that, I dont mean we should look over China and Russia, they too has to be balanced both in trade as well as in political terms, and third neighbors has to be western countries such as France, Germany and east Asian Japan and S.Korea.
As Enisey said below, that Mongolia ruled Russia (Golden Horde) for many 3 centuries, and we ruled China and Middle East, Eastern Europe for more than 2 centuries through succeeding empires of Chinggis heirs. As nomadic Mongols came to power in China as Yuan Dynasty around 12 centuries, we have created a unified Chinese empire from lots of warring states, and same thing with Russian Golden Horde. Not only Mongolians unified the warring states in both regions, but also Mongolians contributed to the first global trade network or kind of globalization at the time with safe trades between East and West, which in turn, helped Europeans to wake from its Dark Ages with arrival of new technologies,science and know how.
Ok, enough with the history, but I am just saying that Mongolia was and never will be a part of China or Russia, but helped those countries to create their modern borders and which they keep it as of today.(almost)
For about Russian railway gauge or Chinese narrow gauge, if possible, both of the gauges has to be constructed, from the Souther Gobi region of Mongolia to China there should be a narrow gauge (at the border, which could be able to be dismantled or separated in emergency times). Russian gauge from South Gobi to Dornod province into Russian far east to Vladivostok port. We have to find balance between the interests of Oyu tolgoi, Tavan tolgoi prosperctors and Energy Resources as well as with Russian Railway authority and government to come up with golden balance between those interests, and power of pursuasions and art of negotiations should play great roles to balance those private and political interests.
It is predicted that in the future fossil fuel demand may not be reduced in 50 years, however, clean energy will only take place and share the growing global energy demand. Therefore, reserves like Tavan Tolgoi with high grade anthracite and coking coal reserve will always find its market with good price. Moreover, Chinese development is just in the beginning stage, and will likely to rapidly grow to next 100 years and same thing with India to achieve same level of Purchasing power parity per person in the West.
Michael Timber
Great article,
When I was in east Asia, I’ve noticed allot of Chinese and Taiwanese people that I work with compare the Mongolia to the Taiwan. Many of them said that Mongolia was part of the China and saying Chinese government need to take it back. Well, I darn disagree, because Taiwan is pretty much China, they speak Chinese and they are Chinese people, but only difference from mainland china is they are separatists so that is why they move to small land called Taiwan. but Mongolia is different history, they have rich natural history and whole entire world knows about that. Even before China conquered the land of Mongolia, Mongolians were the lord and the kings of Chinese dynasties. Mongolian Empire was one of the biggest empire that controlled the known world as far as I know. Even Yuan Dynasty was created and ruled by Mongolian Kings, Yuan dynasty was pretty much Mongolian empire. Well anyway, Mongolians speak different language and they have different heritage but Taiwan is pretty much china and I hope my thoughts not bothering the some free thinking other people. To me Mongolia controlled the China and not the other way!! well that is just my thought and I hope history will make everything clear!
Wangchuk
You are right. The Chinese have created a historical fiction by portraying the Yuan Dynasty as just another Chinese dynasty when in fact, it was a Mongol Empire that conquered China (as well as other countries). China was just one part of that Mongol Empire established by Genghis Khan. Moreover, the Chinese have convinced themselves & others that the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) was also Chinese when in fact it was established by Manchus who invaded China. The Manchus were the rulers & they considered China to be part of, albeit a central part, of their empire. Cities were divided into a Manchu section & a Chinese section. Chinese men were forced to wear their hair in a queue as sign of subservience. The Chinese people have forgotten that the Nationalist Revolution in 1911 was just as much anti-Manchu as it was anti-monarchy. Before 1912, the Chinese people considered Manchus/Qing to be foreigners. It was Sun Yat Sen who first came up w/ the theory that “Chinese” people were not just Han but included other ethnic groups who historically never considered themselves to be Chinese.
don’t worry
Genghis Khan and Kublai Khan referred themselves as Chinese emperors, adopted many Chinese customs…etc. Although the dynasty was established by Kublai Khan, he had his grandfather Genghis Khan placed on the official record as the founder of the dynasty or Taizu (Chinese: 太祖). You can read some Western sources if you don’t trust the Chinese version. But don’t worry, no Chinese is ever mistaken that the Mongols conquered and ruled China during the Yuan Dynasty. Most people in the West (I am in the U.S with Europeans colleagues) know that it’s the Mongols, not the Chinese, that raided and pillaged their nations and caused a lot of havoc in the past.
We want to keep our history, civilization and identity as distinct as possible from your Mongolians as well.
As for the Manchus, the Han Chinese know they’re ‘outsiders’ but they consider themselves as Chinese today, so we accept them as Chinese. The Qing Dynasty was one of the most humiliating and depressing dynasty for the Chinese so I am not sure if the Han Chinese really want to lay claim to that ‘glory’.
LOL
Using your logic, American is an ethnicity, not a nationality term. Thus Barack Obama is not American because he is of Kenyan descent, and the Qing dynasty is not a ‘Chinese’ dynasty because it is of Manchu ethnic descent.
Qing dynasty is ‘Chinese’ in the mult-ethnic nationality sense. It’s not Han Chinese, but it’s Chinese in the nationality term of China.
ari
Reading the comments here, I note the commentators conveniently omit the fact that the Mongol rule was overthrown by the Ming. And since Kublai Khan decided to adopt China as his home ground, he ipso facto was made Mongolia – a minority group – part of the Chinese tribe. Thus when his dynasty was overthrown after hs death, the Yuan was replaced by the Ming which also governed the voluntarily annexed Mongolia into China proper.
Recall also that while Central Asia and Europe were being over-runned by the Mongol-led hordes, China under the Sung were putting up a credible defence and were on the verge of counter-attacking and eliminating the smallish Mongol army compared with Chna’s. The Mongol’s conquest of China was not due to their over-rated strength but to the Sung Court’s intrigue and rot which led to its armed forces under the very capable Yue Fei, being undermined and crippled. China was a big country then and pretty advanced at that point of time. It was not an easy matter to conquer China from the outside.
The argument that the Qing Dynasty is not Chinese is as misleading as it is as false as saying Mongolia under Ming is not Chinese. And the Ming Dynasty was before the Qing Dynasty. Those who postulate this half complete historical interpretation are either mischievious or just plain liars – same as those who would re-write history to suit their petty egos.
Why do I feel that Mongolia will revert to China proper in the near future?
Khuyag
Yes, I think you are 100 percent right
LOL
Back in 1945:
Weak China + Strong USSR + World restructuring after War = Mongolian independence.
Today in 2010:
Strong China + No USSR + World at Peace = ??????
????? = Preservation of Mongolian independence status for the time being.
I guarantee you when WW3 erupts, Mongolia and a vast swath of Russian territory will be annexed by the Chinese.
LOL BACK
By the time WW3 happens, the world will be gone, my friend….so dream on about annexing Russia and Mongolia. Gosh, and when will Chinese people stop trying to invade? don’t you have enough land for your people already?
KHANGUK TRIBES
Real article,
Hello all. I now write this article NOT for racicstic! however what right do we have to search and find about TRUTH/REAL, because truth is the truth. I am american korean descent… for me all race is same is a GOD created. So all race/tribes deserve the rights they are supposed to get… include their identity,territory and freedoom. if have a people says mongolia is a part of china or mongolian is a part han is NOT TRUE thats is FICTION!!! like a lot taiwanese says mongolia is a part of china, japan is a part of china and korea is a part of china!!! thats is VERY FICTION!!! there is a professor of genetics from the west give information about asian people genetics, He says Monggolian-Korean-Japanese and other tungusic tribes have a very closely Genetics DNA however is very differnt with HAN Tribes!! So han tribes is another tribes race branch, Han tribes is basic from a lot ethnic is asia they have a very mix DNA composition not like northen nomadic people (Mongol-Korean-Japanese) northen nomadic people have a homogeneous DNA composition not mix like han chinese!!!
So Mongolian-Korean-Japanese is basic from one three, and han chinese is not!! so stop claim is origin of Mongolian-Korean-Japanese is basic/from HAN CHINESE thats is NOT TRUE… If have a people says Japanese come from china thats right however come from northen china thats is ancient nomadic people territory/land. Noamdic people have a loong time control northen china over 1000 years ++ maybe. and Kanji writting system until now status is still debated!!! Kanji writting system is found or created by Shang dynasty nobleman and shang dynasty is one nomadic dynasty(found by proto mongolic people) like Yuan or Qing…
if han people like taiwanese always claim origin of japanese is a han chinese! thats is stupid and blind, maybe they han taiwanese or han chinese know about nanking tragedy!!! japanese not see/assume han chinese is a family with their but is very diferrent!! japanese occouption of china is killed 3% of han chinese population over 10.000.000 and korean under japanese ruled not like that but we korean still hate about japanese rule in korea!!!
maybe sveral monggolian think they better under korean or japanese control like manchu control/rule monggolia in qing dynasty era. rather than having to master their han chinese!!! they also feel satisfied because it remains under the control of one family (Mongolic family) its a asumption only but you can see in history.
Enisey
Hmm, I think , everyone here is not familiar with Mongolian mentality and history. In future , it will be inevitable for us, Mongolians and Russians face with China like we went through the same situation not once, in 1911 , but in 1939, in 1979. Both Russians and Mongolians feel it inside without mentioning to each other. In Russia, Mongolians have lived for 450 years moreover, our relatives are there in Russia. Russians are not enemies for Mongolians.
Alan
Do Mongolians want to be Russians like Turks want to be Europeans?