Speaking of Japan’s relations with the US, how do you see the issue over the Futenma airbase in Okinawa affecting the future of the relationship? And how about Hatoyama’s domestic political position?
This is a very sensitive issue at the moment and is covered on the news on Japanese TV almost every night. It has dominated the agenda since Hatoyama gained power and, at the moment, we don’t know where it’s heading. Study groups have been set up and lots of key Japanese politicians are flying down to Okinawa on a regular basis to have talks. Hatoyama is saying now that the aim is to get some sort of response by the end of May. He’s having to walk a fine line between satisfying Okinawans, local governments, the Japanese public and the US, which is still a key partner. He has to play it very carefully. I think, as ever with the Okinawa base issues, it will be fudged. The LDP agreement was supposed to be in motion by 2014, but that was after many years and many rounds of negotiations, so I think this will run and run. I can’t see a clear way through, given the level of anxiety and anger in Okinawa at the moment about this issue.
Looking at Hatoyama’s political position, if the decision goes against what the US want, then he’s not going to gain any friends there. But I think he’ll work around it. I think domestically it will be interesting to see how the support rates fall or rise accordingly. He’s certainly lacking the popularity he had six months ago for various reasons, so it’s probably one of the most sensitive issues he’s trying to deal with at the moment.
China and Japan are currently vying for the position as the world’s second-largest economy. With Japan’s economy having contracted last year and with China’s growing rapidly, what do you expect the impact will be on bilateral relations between the two states, and in the Asia Pacific region more broadly?
When the Chinese announced their GDP growth earlier this year, it was very interesting to watch the public and media reaction in Japan. Actually it was very sanguine. This isn’t a shock to the Japanese. Anybody who is tracing Chinese growth and China’s economic rise will know this was on the cards. In fact, the leading industrialists who have been interviewed have all talked about China’s economic growth as a very positive thing in terms of the opportunities it grants to Japanese industry and Japan’s own economic recovery.
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Dev Kumar Dutta
Along with some rational observations there’re some sarcastic ones too and it’s quite obvious. Well, China, Japan and South Korea are already quite closely linked, economically. Now, if there’s talk of an East Asian economic union it’s not going to change things drastically. Maybe, it will iron out a few structural creases but by and large, it’s not going to add any significant horsepower to the already growing economic relationship between these three countries. However, as pointed out in the article, history surely is going to be a very important issue for all these countries coming together into an EU-like formation. Politically there’s a fair bit of mistrust between them and this isn’t just about to go away. Till then, the US will be an important part of the Far Eastern equation.
Pete
hattipMarch wrote, “As always, the Declinists exaggerate the capacities of both China and Japan.”
Interesting word, ‘declinists’… that’s a new one. Hattip, not seeking to overrate any of the three nations in the article, but neither should the USA citizens commit the error of under-estimating them. My late father was a senior executive for a Fortune 500 electronics firm in the 1970s and 1980s, and warned anyone who would listen of the challenge posed by the Asian Tigers. He believed in the capabilities of American workers, but saw firsthand how Korea, Japan and China were taking American manufacturing business away. 20 years after his retirement, his worst fears have come true, as most of the U.S. manufacturing base has been off-shored, or its business taken by leaner, hungrier Korean companies. His concerns about unfair trade practices (in those days, with Japan), which fell largely on deaf ears then, have been proven to be true, 100xfold, with the PRC. Bottom line: The USA is not yet down and out, but our position is arguably very grave, and at the very least far from ideal, especially as concerns our level of national debt, and an increasingly hostile climate for business.
Pete
Memories of the first half of the 20th century are long in both China and South Korea, but as the last survivors of that time pass into history, expect relations with Japan to improve. Despite their differences, these nations share a great deal in common culturally, including the Confucian values system. Significantly, these nations have been much more responsible financially than has the USA, especially in their rate of savings. All three cultures have another adaptive advantage over the U.S. – all have, within recent historical memory – experienced the devastation of war and severe economic hardship. Thus, they are alert to the dangers of both in a way that Americans are not.
An east Asian bloc makes sense in many respects, especially for an aging Japan. For the U.S., allowing either Korea or Japan to enter China’s orbit is problematic, as these nations serve as a strategic counterweight to an increasingly muscular China.
This is what happens when you allow your nation to go into a state of de facto bankrupcy, and elect a president regarded in Asia as a weak leader. The PRC, Korea and Japan can hardly be blamed for acting in accord with their own interests.
Well, at least now we know that the U.S. can quit spending all that money on defending Japan and S. Korea…
hattip
As always, the Declinists exaggerate the capacities of both China and Japan.
Japan does not lead in even CPU chips. Their major advantage is in color screen manufacturing they do not even lead in cell chip manufacturing. 30 years ago we where hearing how the Japanese were going to make “Super Artificial Intelligence” machines and dominate us. They have a hard time competing with the IPhone, for heaven’s sake.
America is light years ahead in terms of technological resource. Where do we get this “best technology or economic infrastructure” in the world nonsense. Either coasts of the USA is better. America will be fine, and still lead(provided that we can get the Democrats back out of office, and roll back government attacks on prosperity.)
People should actually spend a little time in Asia, and stop reading imbibing all the declinist agiprop. A loss of even a minor war would be a disaster for China. China is much more of a paper tiger than the USA. Do you really think they are going send human wave attacks across Korea again?
Japan and China against the West? Another USA? hogwash. Someone is giving too much credit to left wing declinists.
matt
The game in East Asia is much deeper, and China is very subtle. Each of the major players is jockeying right now, and there are real fears of Chinese hegemonism. Remember, that was the history of the region for 2,000 years. China wants to conquer Taiwan without a fight and is well on the way to doing so. The Taiwanese are in so deep in China now that a simple disruption would bankrupt most of the largest Taiwanese companies.
The Koreans are bipolar. They need foreigners but are very xenophobic.
The Japanese are, I believe fatalistic. If any country is fading right now, it is Japan, as their industries shrink and population ages. The government is functionally bankrupt. But the economic and technology infrastructure is still the best in the world.
The only thing uniting factions within the other countries is a fear of China. When the Chinese move to consolidate their power, it will be subtle and will be fast. They may overstep and make mistakes, but they still aim to reclaim the Middle Kingdom.
China already has the technology, Ben. It is 2 steps behind Japan and the US, but it is “good enough”.
Roger Godby
Matt is, in my opinion, right about Japan being fatalist and bankrupt. In-laws in their 50s, in upper levels of management, have seen pay cuts of $20-30K per annum. The population is declining and terminally indebted. But technologically, there are still bright spots and my fibre-optic home Internet connection is fast and about half the price of a slower cable connection in the US.
I’ve been in Japan for close to 20 years. “Economic system” is vague and a point where I beg to differ. I remember when Hokkaido Takushoku Bank went under (it was still handing out free calculators and other trinkets for normal transations(!) up to the end), when ATMs closed at 3pm when the banks did, which made saving money easy: no access. Citibank changed all that by bringing 24-hour ATMs that connected to the postal savings system and having no fee (or a reimbursed one).
The banking system is set up for nationals, of course, but it gets rather ridiculous. Bank X wants the foreigner to open an account as Mr. Surname Given; bank Y wants Mr. Given Surname; the credit card from either bank might want a name in a different order. You can see where an identity nightmare can develop. And you do have your (officially registered) chop with you, don’t you?
Leave metro Tokyo (or another urban giant) and credit cards are hard to use. Visiting Shikoku or the Japan Sea coast? Better have cash. Sorry, better have yen. I’ve known people who’ve come to provincial areas of Japan on work visas and carrying thousands of dollars or euros to start life. The local banks won’t/can’t convert. Instead they direct the cash bearer to a national chain bank instead.
Don’t forget the zombie companies kept alive by 0.02% interest rates. There is quite a bit of red ink just waiting to claw itself up from out the grave.
Ben Gee, Edmonton, Canada
If Japan and China can join forces, it will be like the US with four times the labor force. China will have Japan’s technology and Japan will have China’s resources and population.
ElamBend
And they’d still hate each other.
But seriously folks, can you imagine how paranoid this would make the Koreans feel?
Roger Godby
And they’ll both grow old and childless together, in perfect harmony.