I think by publishing the results of the joint project now and highlighting areas in which there’s been some agreement, (i.e. in the use of the term ‘aggression’), that it certainly helps to move the relationship further forward. However, we have to be careful about heralding this as a new era in Sino-Japanese relations. It is in a sense, because things are going very well and there’s a flurry of diplomatic activity on both sides. But again, there’s continuity. A lot of work was done after Koizumi left the scene under the three subsequent LDP prime ministers, and a lot of the imbalance had been redressed. So I see what’s happening as a sort of continuation of that, but boosted by Hatoyama’s credentials as a more pro-Asia and pro-China Prime Minister—which the Chinese are always very pleased to engage with.
The publication of the history project is certainly a step in the right direction and fulfils what Abe and the Chinese had put in place three or four years ago. That said, maybe I’m cynical, but you never know what’s going to come next where the history problem is concerned. It could be that at an official level, for the time being, things are put to one side. But we never quite know nowadays when public opinion is going to come back and create problems. For the time being, at least though, it bodes well for what the Chinese and the Japanese are trying to do in terms of improving their strategic partnership.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has been vocal over the importance of improving Sino-Japanese relations in the context of Asia as a whole, but there has been speculation, including in The Economist, for example, that there may be an ulterior motive, namely to drive a wedge between Japan and the United States. Is China’s Japan policy still focused on the erosion of the US-Japan Security Alliance?
I don’t think so, and I don’t think China’s Japan policy really ever was. I think at times, for political reasons, it may be useful to view it that way. And certainly the Chinese might be wanting to play the Japanese and the US off against each other at certain times. But I don’t see that happening now, and I think that actually it’s something they could not achieve anyway. I think the Chinese leadership is very pragmatic in terms of how they see China’s growing role regionally and globally, and both Japan and the United States are important partners to it. So, I don’t think trying to split up this US-Japan alliance is a goal at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. There’s a tendency to try and find ulterior motives in the actions or the policies of the Chinese leadership and perhaps this is sometimes true to a certain extent. But I don’t think that analysis works in the current situation.
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Dev Kumar Dutta
Along with some rational observations there’re some sarcastic ones too and it’s quite obvious. Well, China, Japan and South Korea are already quite closely linked, economically. Now, if there’s talk of an East Asian economic union it’s not going to change things drastically. Maybe, it will iron out a few structural creases but by and large, it’s not going to add any significant horsepower to the already growing economic relationship between these three countries. However, as pointed out in the article, history surely is going to be a very important issue for all these countries coming together into an EU-like formation. Politically there’s a fair bit of mistrust between them and this isn’t just about to go away. Till then, the US will be an important part of the Far Eastern equation.
Pete
hattipMarch wrote, “As always, the Declinists exaggerate the capacities of both China and Japan.”
Interesting word, ‘declinists’… that’s a new one. Hattip, not seeking to overrate any of the three nations in the article, but neither should the USA citizens commit the error of under-estimating them. My late father was a senior executive for a Fortune 500 electronics firm in the 1970s and 1980s, and warned anyone who would listen of the challenge posed by the Asian Tigers. He believed in the capabilities of American workers, but saw firsthand how Korea, Japan and China were taking American manufacturing business away. 20 years after his retirement, his worst fears have come true, as most of the U.S. manufacturing base has been off-shored, or its business taken by leaner, hungrier Korean companies. His concerns about unfair trade practices (in those days, with Japan), which fell largely on deaf ears then, have been proven to be true, 100xfold, with the PRC. Bottom line: The USA is not yet down and out, but our position is arguably very grave, and at the very least far from ideal, especially as concerns our level of national debt, and an increasingly hostile climate for business.
Pete
Memories of the first half of the 20th century are long in both China and South Korea, but as the last survivors of that time pass into history, expect relations with Japan to improve. Despite their differences, these nations share a great deal in common culturally, including the Confucian values system. Significantly, these nations have been much more responsible financially than has the USA, especially in their rate of savings. All three cultures have another adaptive advantage over the U.S. – all have, within recent historical memory – experienced the devastation of war and severe economic hardship. Thus, they are alert to the dangers of both in a way that Americans are not.
An east Asian bloc makes sense in many respects, especially for an aging Japan. For the U.S., allowing either Korea or Japan to enter China’s orbit is problematic, as these nations serve as a strategic counterweight to an increasingly muscular China.
This is what happens when you allow your nation to go into a state of de facto bankrupcy, and elect a president regarded in Asia as a weak leader. The PRC, Korea and Japan can hardly be blamed for acting in accord with their own interests.
Well, at least now we know that the U.S. can quit spending all that money on defending Japan and S. Korea…
hattip
As always, the Declinists exaggerate the capacities of both China and Japan.
Japan does not lead in even CPU chips. Their major advantage is in color screen manufacturing they do not even lead in cell chip manufacturing. 30 years ago we where hearing how the Japanese were going to make “Super Artificial Intelligence” machines and dominate us. They have a hard time competing with the IPhone, for heaven’s sake.
America is light years ahead in terms of technological resource. Where do we get this “best technology or economic infrastructure” in the world nonsense. Either coasts of the USA is better. America will be fine, and still lead(provided that we can get the Democrats back out of office, and roll back government attacks on prosperity.)
People should actually spend a little time in Asia, and stop reading imbibing all the declinist agiprop. A loss of even a minor war would be a disaster for China. China is much more of a paper tiger than the USA. Do you really think they are going send human wave attacks across Korea again?
Japan and China against the West? Another USA? hogwash. Someone is giving too much credit to left wing declinists.
matt
The game in East Asia is much deeper, and China is very subtle. Each of the major players is jockeying right now, and there are real fears of Chinese hegemonism. Remember, that was the history of the region for 2,000 years. China wants to conquer Taiwan without a fight and is well on the way to doing so. The Taiwanese are in so deep in China now that a simple disruption would bankrupt most of the largest Taiwanese companies.
The Koreans are bipolar. They need foreigners but are very xenophobic.
The Japanese are, I believe fatalistic. If any country is fading right now, it is Japan, as their industries shrink and population ages. The government is functionally bankrupt. But the economic and technology infrastructure is still the best in the world.
The only thing uniting factions within the other countries is a fear of China. When the Chinese move to consolidate their power, it will be subtle and will be fast. They may overstep and make mistakes, but they still aim to reclaim the Middle Kingdom.
China already has the technology, Ben. It is 2 steps behind Japan and the US, but it is “good enough”.
Roger Godby
Matt is, in my opinion, right about Japan being fatalist and bankrupt. In-laws in their 50s, in upper levels of management, have seen pay cuts of $20-30K per annum. The population is declining and terminally indebted. But technologically, there are still bright spots and my fibre-optic home Internet connection is fast and about half the price of a slower cable connection in the US.
I’ve been in Japan for close to 20 years. “Economic system” is vague and a point where I beg to differ. I remember when Hokkaido Takushoku Bank went under (it was still handing out free calculators and other trinkets for normal transations(!) up to the end), when ATMs closed at 3pm when the banks did, which made saving money easy: no access. Citibank changed all that by bringing 24-hour ATMs that connected to the postal savings system and having no fee (or a reimbursed one).
The banking system is set up for nationals, of course, but it gets rather ridiculous. Bank X wants the foreigner to open an account as Mr. Surname Given; bank Y wants Mr. Given Surname; the credit card from either bank might want a name in a different order. You can see where an identity nightmare can develop. And you do have your (officially registered) chop with you, don’t you?
Leave metro Tokyo (or another urban giant) and credit cards are hard to use. Visiting Shikoku or the Japan Sea coast? Better have cash. Sorry, better have yen. I’ve known people who’ve come to provincial areas of Japan on work visas and carrying thousands of dollars or euros to start life. The local banks won’t/can’t convert. Instead they direct the cash bearer to a national chain bank instead.
Don’t forget the zombie companies kept alive by 0.02% interest rates. There is quite a bit of red ink just waiting to claw itself up from out the grave.
Ben Gee, Edmonton, Canada
If Japan and China can join forces, it will be like the US with four times the labor force. China will have Japan’s technology and Japan will have China’s resources and population.
ElamBend
And they’d still hate each other.
But seriously folks, can you imagine how paranoid this would make the Koreans feel?
Roger Godby
And they’ll both grow old and childless together, in perfect harmony.