It is clear, then, why the melting of glaciers in the Karakoram region could have a disastrous impact on ties between India and Pakistan. French geologists have already predicted the Indus will become a seasonal river by 2040, which would unnerve Pakistan as its ‘granary basket,’ Punjab, would become increasingly drought-prone and eventually a desert–all within a few decades. It takes no great leap of imagination to see the potential for conflict as the two nations resort to military means to control this water source.
Meanwhile, glacier melting could also be creating a potential flashpoint between India and China. The melting Himalayan glaciers will inevitably induce changes to the McMahon Line, the boundary that separates India and China. Beijing has already embarked upon a long-term strategy of throttling of India’s major water source in the north-east–the Brahmaputra River that originates in China.
India has lodged several official protests over reports that China is constructing large dams and embankments to divert the waters of Brahmaputra. Beijing, for its part, has already taken about 50 kilometres of Bhutan’s territory under the pretext of climate change, and has threatened to construct new roads close to Bhutanese borders, ostensibly to promote tourism. Until a few years ago, regular human activity or movement along the China-Bhutan border was not possible all year round because of extremely cold and snowy conditions. But now, regular activity in the China-Bhutan border area is possible for at least seven months a year.
And Bhutan isn’t the only place Beijing has been taking advantage of climate change. Take, for example, the Tibetan Plateau, where the Chinese are planning to construct further military infrastructure with an eye on India. Beijing reportedly intends to build a radio station and several air strips on the roof of the world where the setting up of heavily fortified permanent military infrastructure was previously not possible because of the harsh conditions. Meanwhile, thawing mountain peaks have emboldened China to widen its all-weather and highly strategic Karakoram highway to Pakistan–a serious headache for India’s military leadership. Climate change has also allowed the Chinese troops to construct massive bunkers in Aksai Chin area in Ladakh, which China wrested from India during the 1962 war and continues to occupy. Construction of bunkers in Aksai Chin was earlier never considered to be feasible or even desirable.
Debate over sea level rises, the rights and wrongs of China’s approach to a climate deal in Copenhagen and the desirability of firm emissions targets vis-à-vis economic growth may be up for debate. But the changing strategic paradigm in Asia as a result of climate changes should not be.
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Jeremy J
I’m not so sure we should be so quick to equate competition for water resources to military conflict, that seems rooted in realist thinking. An interesting institutionalist / functionalist response to the India / Pakistan situation regarding the Indus is ‘Alam, Undala (2002) ‘Questioning the Water Wars Rationale: A Case Study of the Indus Waters Treaty’ The Royal Geographic Society 168(4) pp. 341-353′, which notes how the two countries have largely cooperated over use of the waters for over 40 years (certainly up to 2002), including through 2 wars. Obviously, this is not definitive proof the other way, but just a cautionary note that the basic human necessity that is fresh water, need not only lead to military conflict, it’s very necessity may spur cooperation.
Shivank
Interesting take on the whole situation. My incapacity to comment deeper on the article-than just to say that the article supports the red map of India on the right (pointing to the very top portion). A new paper partition (Africa) is imminent while being supported by the massive number of troops on all sides. A difficult situation even to fathom.
jack
Good article except for the fact that the author has obviously not studied up on history or current events; Aksai Chin is Chinese territory and no amount of Indian hypernationalism or moaning will make it otherwise.
Rajeev Sharma
I am thankful to Mr Jack, the writer of the above comment, for liking my article. As for his upbraiding me on not knowing history, I refuse to join issue with Mr Jack’s own hypernationalism.
Patrick W.
Serious and not much time! For better understanding read “Three Cups of Tea” and “Stones into Schools” by Greg Mortenson who built almost two hundred schools in that area over a fifteen year period. Over a billion people will be affected – where will they find the essential food and water?