The moves toward a more Asian orientation are in part inspired by Europe’s growing antipathy toward Russia, and Russia’s need to build relationships elsewhere.
‘In the 1990s, the Russian government had the view that for Russians to cross the Urals was a historic mistake: Moscow is the heart of Russia, and this is the tail,’ says Vladivostok-based political analyst Mikhail Shinkovsky. ‘But this is changing. Europe doesn’t like Russia. But here, in this great region, we have neighbours who, maybe they don’t exactly like us, but their feelings aren’t as bad as Europeans.’
Because of China’s economic advantages over Russia, some scholars are actually now predicting that, instead of a Chinese invasion of Russia, the reverse may happen. While long-term economic predictions are risky, it seems likely that Russia’s economy, whose current boom is dependent on a (finite) supply of petroleum resources, will eventually be slowed by demographic decline. Meanwhile, China’s economy looks set, for now at least, to remain strong even as demographic projections show China’s population levelling off over the next several decades. As a result, it’s not hard to imagine Russians moving to China for better job opportunities.
Indeed, to a small extent that already is happening: While working class Chinese do try to come to Russia to trade or work on construction projects, many young, educated Russians are going the other way.
China has already been working on attracting Russians, both visitors and immigrants. Russia’s well developed education system produces many of the skilled engineers, English speakers and other types of workers China needs to continue to grow, and Russians generally are eager consumers of China’s cheap manufacturing. This has led to border cities in China posting signs in Russian to attract day-tripping shoppers from across the border, while local governments encourage talented Russians to settle there. One border city, Suifenhe, even started a project to create a ‘Russiatown’ that would apparently house 50,000 Russians (though the plan appears to have been abandoned in favour of letting Russians live wherever they want in the city).
But much of this is beside the point–specific incentives aren’t needed to encourage Russians to come to China. China’s dynamic economy, simpler bureaucracy and lower taxes and interest rates make it attractive to young Russian professionals and entrepreneurs. And while there’s still apprehension about China’s intentions in Moscow, in the Russian Far East there is a good deal of Sinophilia. Chinese language studies are now popular than English at universities, and Russians travel to–and even buy vacation homes on–Hainan Island.
So, does all of this portend a future of Russians in the Far East moving en masse south to China? It’s too early to know for sure. But today’s trends suggest this is more likely than a Chinese mass migration north.
‘China is the destiny of Siberia–our present and future depends in every respect on what happens in China,’ says Viktor Dyatlov, a scholar of Chinese immigration to Russia. ‘The only direction we can move in is integration and cooperation between Russia and China. We just can’t predict what form that cooperation will take.’
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Michael
Over the years, I’ve read articles about both immigrants and Russians having trouble getting by in European Russia–If they aren’t actively attacked, then they have trouble getting jobs. Throw in an abundance of North Koreans who are literally dying to get out of their home country, some of whom have relatives in Russian territory already, and getting people to move to Siberia wouldn’t seem to be that hard. Am I overlooking something?