By David Axe
For this reason, Beijing is unlikely to attack Taiwan, but remains committed to the appearance of an imminent danger–what Robert Farley, a professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, calls the ‘credible threat to seize Taiwan.’
‘If the Taiwanese don’t believe that Chinese military intervention is at least possible,’ Farley says, ‘then they might become unpredictable.’
This ‘Taiwan theatre’ helps explain the PLAN’s coming carriers. ‘If we were in a war, I don’t think China’s carriers would last very long,’ Wertheim says. After all, the United States and its closest European and Asian allies already possess no fewer than 20 aircraft carriers capable of launching fixed-wing strike aircraft–not to mention a combined submarine fleet approaching 100 vessels, compared to China’s roughly 60.
China will never be able outgun rival navies with its flattops, but it doesn’t have to. ‘I don’t think one or two carriers are going to change the military dynamics so much,’ Wertheim says, but the visually impressive vessels ‘will change perceptions.’
Can we all get along?
Aside from Taiwan and the question of its ‘show carriers,’ China is focusing most of its efforts on developing defensive forces, as well as forces optimized for cooperating with its current rivals, rather than simply blasting them out of the water.
Defensive ‘anti-access’ systems–in China’s case, anti-ship missiles and submarines–make perfect sense for any powerful country. ‘Nations that aspire to regional hegemony have big navies; it’s just what they do,’ Farley says.
China has long aspired to be a regional and even global power, but as recently as the mid-1990s was incapable of even protecting its own coastline. In many ways, the most surprising thing about China’s naval development is how late and ultimately modest it has been, considering China now has the world’s second-biggest economy. ‘I try to think of it from their shoes,’ Wertheim says. ‘I don’t think they’re acting unreasonably in building a bigger fleet.’
The Chinese ‘have this huge impact on the world economy,’ he says. ‘They have a tremendous amount of economic sea lanes to defend. It’s really, really important to remember that in some ways it would be irresponsible for them as a country not to have some sort of build-up.’
And this build-up has the potential for far-reaching–even global–benefits if it can work alongside the United States. ‘The simple presence of naval power reduces the anarchy and lawlessness that otherwise might prevail on the high seas,’ Farley says.
In 2008, China mobilized three warships to join the now 40-strong international fleet patrolling the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean to protect commercial ships from increasingly aggressive and more numerous Somali pirates. While most nations’ vessels sailed singly inside static ‘patrol boxes,’ the Chinese adopted a World II-style convoy system — that is, sailing alongside merchant ships — that has actually proved the most effective way of intercepting pirates, according to naval experts and shipping officials.
On the basis of this experience, late last year the PLAN asked to take a turn leading the international naval committee that coordinates the counter-pirate operations. The European Union backed China’s request, and in January the so-called ‘Shared Awareness and Deconfliction’ body, also known as ‘SHADE,’ approved the move. Beijing must now sign off on the PLAN playing this larger role. Leadership in SHADE would actually require the PLAN boost its contributions to the counter-piracy fleet with additional vessels.
In addition, the PLAN had reportedly also volunteered to support the US-led naval force that patrols the sea lanes between Somalia and Yemen, aiming to intercept illegal arms shipments between Islamic terrorist groups in Africa and the Middle East. Until this year, the Japanese navy had provided a naval oiler to refuel the US task force, but in 2007 Tokyo considered suspending the assistance. At that point, the PLAN reportedly made an unofficial offer to make one of its oilers available, though according to the Japanese newspaper The Daily Yomiuri, US officials turned down the offer.
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Jon
Rosy though this take of Chinese naval expansion might be, at least it does not take the naive position (apparently widely held in some circles) that a war with China is impossible due to our deeply intertwined economies.
On the other hand, it seems to me that someone could have written a very similar article about the expansion of the Japanese navy in the early 1930s. In fact, the case would have been even easier to make, in that Japan had at that time a more tangible history of international navsal cooperation (with the Allies in WWI), and was nominally complying with international naval arms control treaties (which don’t even exist today). Let’s hope the optimism expressed here is not similarly misplaced.
Kat
A war with China is less LIKELY because of our economies. Personally, I don’t think we’d go to war with the Chinese over Taiwan, even if the Chinese invaded. There’s no way you would get a UN coalition to assist, and the US is not in the position to launch a war with it’s largest rival over an island that is, in essence, of little strategic value to us. That having been said, it probably won’t come to that, mainly do to China’s economic entaglements with Taiwan. Beijing’s kept Taiwan from being able to sign any regional FTAs except the ECFA. China is Taiwan’s largest market and it’s largest importer. In another 30 years I’ll be very surprised if Taiwan is still autonomous.
John Chan
It is Winter Sweet not White Sweet.
Derrick
No one can stop China from investing in its navy…they have a nuclear deterrent and their simple argument will be : if the US can, why can’t I?
However, China should learn from the mistakes of the Japanese during World War 2 and the collapse of the Soviet Union during the Cold War and adopt a peaceful, transparent and slow military buildup if it intends on so doing.
Japan’s aggressive use of its navy to expand its empire over-exhausted its resources and exposed long and vulnerable supply routes to harassment by US naval forces. The Soviet desire to catch up with the US military led to exhausting their economy on a fruitless arms race.
Finally, if the US wanted to invade China, they could have done it decades ago, and there would have been nothing China could do about it.
So if China is smart, they will play things quietly and coolly, and let Asia naturally fall into its orbit. And China should look at Open Skies and Open Waters treaties with the US in order to build trust so the US will be more accepting towards a Chinese military buildup of any sort.
BillT
I think China is being very smart about it all.
They proved that they can take out our satellites and cut off the communications between our fleets and home base.
They build missiles like we build cars, by the thousands but don’t advertise how many or what their max capabilities might be.
They are buying this new navy with our Walmart dollars, before the dollar becomes toilet paper, making our Walmart shoppers complicit in their plans.
They are getting ready for the day that the US slips and falls down that rabbit hole Alice visited…or maybe it has already.
Besides, they have economic interests on every continent and need to insure the safety of their supply lines, like any smart country does. The US will soon not be able to afford to patrol the whole world and they know it, as does any rational, thinking American.
John Chan
The national flower of Japan is Sakura which blossoms in a short burst then drops off suddenly. China’s national flower is White Sweet which flowers in Winter and lasts through the winter harsh environment. Japan’s naval venture during the WWII is like Sakura. China will take an approach like the White Sweet to develop its navy. China has gone through hundreds of years of poverty, the current prosperity is very dear to the Chinese, they will fight to the teeth to keep it. Fighting wars and rapid military expansion are totally contrary to the path of building prosperity for a nation. As long as China’s sovereign is not threatened, nobody will get hurt. China wants to rise peacefully. I think China will keep its military buildup as transparent as the USA.
Andrew
@John Chan
So bullying its neighbours saying all the South China Sea is theirs and contesting oil and gas rich islands and waterways recognised under international law as being Vietnamese, Japanese and Korean, is peaceful is it?
Now they’re bullying the Norway government for the Nobel peace prize, which it has no control over. All of this is peaceful is it?
Chinese businessmen open fire on Kenyan protesters who are paid slave labour wages (according to the BBC) and the Chinese government does nothing and does not condemn their actions. This is a peaceful government is it? At the same time a sea-captain is arrested for ramming two Japanese vessels and all hell breaks loose.
Chinese citizens violently protest against Japan and all the government says is to protest rationally and within the law. Yet anyone protesting against the Chinese government is locked away or just disappears or is shot at from soliders or the police (Tienanmen Square).
These are the actions of a peaceful, cooperative government promoting mkutual understanding is it?
The Chinese government may control evrything in its own country down to the minute detail, but has to recognise it has no powers outside of its borders. If it doesn’t, and a lot of countries are getting a little pissed of with them now, they may just find businesses relocating to Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, as is being discussed here in Europe. Then where will the Chinese growth be?
Charles
Like any other country would do, Chinese Foreign Ministry only reiterates its country’s stand over contentious issues be it the dubious Nobel Prize winner or sovereignty over disputed territories. This pretty much falls under present international norms (you just don’t like it because it so happens that it is the Chinese who are doing it). Anyway, I am sure the Nowegians won’t stop handing out awards to Chinese dissidents in the future (it’s just about all the West and the US can do to piss the PRC off these days). If you are really against bullying then you should really spare a thought for countries like Cuba, which I think is still being bullied by the US or more recently, Iraq. I don’t recall the UN ever actually sanctioning the US invasion of that country…
As for the South China Sea, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and even Taiwan all claim part of, or, all of the Spratlys. So it’s not just China alone you know… And you seriously think the rest of the claimants would actually cosy up with each other? I am sure the Taiwanese don’t mind the PRC taking the lead in protesting Japanese claims over the Diaoyutai. Just go to their Coast Guard website and you will see that the Taiwanese quite vehemently state that the islands are an inalienable part of China (ok, in their case the ROC).
Also, businesses just don’t have that much of a choice of leaving China for other countries that you mentioned because the latter just don’t have the infrastructure and full business cycle to support that kind of investment or manufacturing base. After all, China is already the ‘factory of the world’? Who on earth would really want to pay US$800 for an I-phone these days? Get real, manufacturing has all but left the US. Thanks to ‘quantitative easing’, the Americans are effectively saying that it’s ok for them to devalue the Dollar but not the Chinese or anyone else for that matter. That’s a lot of nerve coming from the No.1 culprit who caused the Global Credit Crisis in 2008. Anyways, the Germans, French, even the Japanese(!) and Koreans and emerging economies at the G20 in Seoul aren’t buying Obama’s sales pitch. I read that the Germans are really pissed off with the Yanks in Reuters yesterday.
So Andrew, please get the background and historical context of the issues correct first before you champion the causes of so called ‘downtrodden’ countries. At least, I don’t see Chinese carrier battle groups roaming the seven seas or them forming ‘coalition of the willing’ looking for weapons of mass deception (sorry, I meant destruction)in other people’s countries…
Kat
Seriously? Decades ago we were more concerned with the Soviets and China was a third world nation whose major military strength was the size of its population. The situation is entirely different now. China is an economic juggernaut these days, in case you forgot, and that carries it’s own brand of soft power.
Beijing isn’t looking to rock the boat, so to speak, but with the U.S. still fighting a decade long war there’s no way Washington would get the domestic political support to attack China over a military build up. Broad international support would also be lacking, not only because the rest of the world is experiencing its own economic hardships, but also because their relationship with China is almost as vital to them as their relationship with the U.S. Add to that our severe deficits and the economic crisis, and there’s very little we can do to stop them from boldly expanding however they want.