The ‘Good’ Taliban Myth

February 05, 2010

By Rajeev Sharma

But it is not just India that has cause for concern. The Anglo-American diplomacy at the conference also has adverse implications for China, as well as other states with interests in central Asia such as Russia, Iran and Turkey. China fears, with some reason, that Islamist radicalism in Afghanistan could unsettle the country’s Muslim-dominated northwest. A legitimized Taliban in Afghanistan could stoke separatists fires in China and provide much needed oxygen to militants in the Uighur/East Turkestani area (although China may well be able to count on its all-weather friendship with Pakistan to keep the genie in the bottle while also enjoying the spectacle of India grappling with another strategic headache in the area).

Meanwhile, the London conference has again brought Pakistan centre stage and means that for the first time in more than eight years Islamabad has an opportunity to move closer to the Afghan regime once the ‘good’ Taliban is drafted into government. Under such a scenario, India would see the influence it has secured over the past eight years quickly eroded.

And this is New Delhi’s biggest worry. India has much at stake in Afghanistan and has not invested close to two billion dollars in Afghanistan since 2001 to see it all go to waste now. India moved in quickly and determinedly to fill the political space left in Afghanistan by the pro-Pakistan Taliban government, setting up consulates in four major cities in Afghanistan.

But once the ‘good’ Taliban is given an opening in Afghanistan, Pakistan will undoubtedly look to gain leverage, moves that would raise the worrying prospect for Indian policymakers of more unrest in Jammu and Kashmir. After all, militant activity reached new heights in Jammu and Kashmir during the Taliban’s reign, and there is no reason to think this would not be repeated once the Taliban had a foothold in the Afghan government.

A clear sign of Pakistan’s intent came at the London conference, when Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said his country had offered to train the Afghan military and police. Such close involvement would give Pakistan clear and firm influence on the Afghan security establishment and add an unpredictable element to Indian security concerns.

For now, at least, India must fortify its defences in the border areas and abandon any plans to remove Indian Army units from Jammu and Kashmir. It cannot risk lowering its guard now.