By Luke Hunt
Her critics have consistently alleged gross corruption within her administration and family and claim her bid for congress is a ploy to remain in power after she steps down on June 30, with her allies pushing for a shift to a parliamentary form of government that in turn would enable her to run for prime minister.
Arroyo is widely expected to win in her home province of Pampanga. But her personal popularity in the Central Luzon seat is far from uniform in the rest of the country, where her party, Lakas-Kampi, and their bright presidential candidate Gilbert Teodoro are struggling.
‘The impact of the Maguindanao massacre will in part depend on how Manila deals with those accused of involvement in the killings, though it’s unlikely any formal legal case will be ready before the May polls,’ Greenwood says, adding that any indication that the government was going soft on the Ampatuans would run the risk of encouraging similar groups to emulate them. Yet at the same time, any strong display of official censure could provoke a violent backlash.
Teodoro reacted quickly and had the Ampatuans evicted from Lakas-Kampi.
But a separate criminal investigation was ordered by Philippine National Police Director General Jesus Versoza into allegations the four detained Ampatuans were enjoying the type of treatment not normally afforded those on murder charges.
So ingrained into the local law and order culture were they that clan members were allowed to use their mobile phones, had catered food delivered and a servant to clean their cells. Andal Sr. was confined to an ‘Officer’s Ward’ of a health facility where standing procedures were ignored and he was not handcuffed to his bed. One doctor said his illness did not justify the medical attention being given him, while police and military personnel at the military camp in eastern Mindanao where the clan leaders were being held argued the Ampatuans were entitled to the same rights as one of their own wounded soldiers.
Such impunity, coupled with bloody strikes by MILF insurgents that have significantly escalated since an agreement on a Moro homeland was ruled unconstitutional and struck down in October 2008, provides an intimidating backdrop as candidates prepare for the hustings.
‘The NPA and Moro groups can be expected to add to the mix, which will serve to disperse the security forces and leave large areas of the country with minimal cover,’ Greenwood says.
Such concerns have prompted observers including Keith Loveard, a regional security analyst with Jakarta-based Concord Consulting, to warn of the potential for May’s poll to be the bloodiest yet, even when measured against the Philippines violent electoral past.
Observers say a combination of factors, ranging from poverty to diminishing resources at a local level, divisions within the military and the absence of a strong presidential candidate, will likely only aggravate an already volatile situation.
‘In the regional context, the Philippines has long had a reputation for the rule of the gun and the massacre certainly proved just how true this is,’ Loveard says. ‘No president to date has been able to adopt a realistic program to curb the power of private militias or to control access to guns…This failure logically makes the coming elections a likely free-for-all in which the large variety of groups pushing for a share in power on a national or local level will use violence to achieve their ends, at the cost of course of the ordinary people.’
Beyond the Second Front
Across in Malaysia there are no shortages of victims from the conflicts in the Southern Philippines. Hundreds of thousands of them live in UN-sanctioned and illegal refugee camps scattered on the east and west coasts of Sabah, the Malaysian state in north Borneo.
Two generations have grown up in water villages like Palau Gaya, off the coast of Kota Kinabalu, and in Kampong Hidiyat or The Icebox on the outskirts of Tawau. They offer a stark and embarrassing reminder of the decades of war and the moral paralysis within the United Nations to afford some kind of comfort for the victims.
wowie
If only the Philippine government would invest more effort in addressing the problems in Mindanao, the country would be a lot more stable and peaceful. The problem is, the government doesn’t give much important to this part of the country because a lot of the wealthy and influencial people are not living in this part of the country! Much of our national budget is spent on the Metro Manila area and only a few trikles on the rest of the country. I think its high time that the country should shift to a federal form so that the people of Mindanao will have their own policy makers and run their own affairs according to whats best for them. People in Manila couldn’t fix the problem in Mindanao because they have little knowledge in the culture and lifestyle of people in Mindanao! They only read about these things in books that, for my part, are rarely accurate! The former senator, Raul Roco, have exposed anomalies in the Department of Education in the procurement of textbooks and an expat here in Cebu has exposed that the textbook used by the students here have a lot of errors in its content but still the department of education didn’t do anything about it! You see, historically, our past have been padded by our own historical writers, its a hypocritical writing of our history! it’s a history of hypocritical accounts. If we can correct our past, maybe, we can solve our problems by being aware of the mistakes in the past. It won’t “just the it is here”.
Bill.
I live in the Philippines now and have been here for 2 years. There are distinct ties between the Manila elites and the problems in Mindanao. It is common knowledge, but, in a country where most people are just trying to survive, something happening elsewhere is not of importance unless it directly affects them.
This country is run be a few billionaire families that were in power when we gave the Filipinos their “freedom” over 50 years ago. The US has helped these wealthy families to maintain control in the years since. The US is to blame for many of the problems occurring here by the lack of concern for our one-time colony. But, as there is nothing here that our US elites want, the Philippines are ignored. Too bad. They are a really great people who just want a chance.