The Road to Normalcy

January 25, 2010

By Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe

The changes have continued this year, and last month the strategic A9 highway linking Jaffna to the south of the country was opened to allow 24-hour, unregulated civilian access. Such steps toward the demilitarization of Northern Province have enabled its reintegration into the island’s economy and society.

‘Jaffna is returning to normal,’ says Rev. Dr. Thomas Sundranayagam, Bishop of Jaffna. ‘Lorries are daily bringing goods to Jaffna and also agricultural and fishing products are being sent to Colombo and other parts of the country. Commercial activities are taking place and the people are also very happy. They can now easily visit Colombo and other areas.

‘People from the South also come to Jaffna. During the Thaipongal and New Year they saw a lot of people from the South, visiting Jaffna, some of them visiting the area for the first time.’

And, although the military has grown in strength since the defeat of the LTTE, evidence so far suggests there has been an ongoing process of demilitarization throughout Sri Lanka.

The ruling UPFA is hopeful that the speedy restoration of normalcy will translate into Tamil votes in the upcoming election. The credibility of the opposition’s key Tamil backer, the TNA, meanwhile is in question, with internal divisions making it unclear how solid the TNA voter base really is and to what extent it can really claim to represent Tamil interests in Sri Lanka.

Among the intra-TNA factions, the most dominant group has stated its preference for the UNP and has endorsed Fonseka. And, while the second-largest group at one time called for the boycotting of the election but was persuaded to participate, the third group supports Rajapakse.

Such disunity suggests the results of the election could have a decisive role in shaping the TNA’s future, and could even answer the question of whether it can survive at all. TNA leader R. Sampanthan said in September that he supported ‘adequate autonomy for the Tamil people within the framework of a united Sri Lanka,’ and also indicated that he believes the implementation of the 13th Amendment would be insufficient.

TNA lawmaker and LTTE advocate MK Sivajilingam, meanwhile, caught the mood of the group well when he was reported as saying recently: ‘We, as representatives of the Tamil people, feel that there’s an immediate need to address the issues of the Tamil people through a federal solution or one which reconnects the North and the East. We don’t think any Southern candidate will agree, although they speak of a 13 plus solution. The Tamil people need self-determination and autonomy. Even implementing 13 plus will not solve our problems as long as control is held in the centre in Colombo.’

International Influence

But there’s also an international dimension to the issue of Tamil loyalty. In the aftermath of the LTTE’s defeat, India has indicated that it prefers a settlement that includes the full implementation of the 13th Amendment so as to ensure stability on its strategically important southern periphery. However, this means the TNA’s position (and opposition to the Amendment) is increasingly at odds with India’s foreign policy interests. Since the pro-LTTE parties were routed in the Lok Sabha (India’s parliament) elections last May, India has made clear gestures aimed at influencing the Tamil vote, including voicing its disapproval of the TNA election platform.

In July, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, although telling the Tamil Nadu Assembly that US President Barack Obama’s election suggested race was no longer a factor in politics and that a Tamil could soon ‘rule Sri Lanka,’ cautioned Tamil Nadu politicians against making provocative remarks. ‘This isn’t a conflict between the governments of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka…If we end up saying something against the Sinhalese community, it will only affect the Tamils there.’

Similarly, BBC Sinhala reported that M Karunanidhi told the Assembly that Tamil Eelam or a ‘separate country’ was unrealistic and that only by working with Rajapakse could a solution to the strife be found. Indeed, Karunanidhi reportedly stated categorically that the 13th Amendment ‘is possible, not Tamil Eelam.’

This position was reinforced earlier this month when Subramaniam Swamy, the Janata Party leader in Tamil Nadu, urged Tamils to vote for Rajapakse if they wanted more Indian support and comes as India takes an increasingly tough line with the TNA, including last month when it denied access to TNA lawmaker and LTTE advocate MK Sivajilingam, who was to visit Chennai, Tamil Nadu.

The key to the Tamil’s future will be, according to former Sri Lankan ambassador to the United Nations, Dayan Jayatilleka, whether Tamil nationalism can ‘demonstrably break from the LTTE and “Prabhakanism” and from the secessionist goal.’

‘The Sri Lankan state would naturally feel it’s unsafe to consider as a peace partner and ally in nation-building a party or group that failed to arrive at a consensus with it on these issues,’ Jayatilleka says. ‘Public opinion could be reluctant to fully devolve power to such an entity.’

The LTTE flourished in a quite different geopolitical environment, one far more conducive to a separatist insurgency. But the situation today, complicated by the competing regional interests of India, China and the West, will almost certainly leave the TNA’s separatist platform increasingly at odds with the region’s evolving political dynamics.

Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe is an analyst who has published widely on South Asian and Indian Ocean security issues.