The backdrop to this pre-election anticipation, though, is an increasingly anxious exile community that is worried about what will happen to the autonomous Tibet movement after the Dalai Lama, 74, is gone. Many fear that the loss of the movement’s most iconic figure will change the face of Tibetan Buddhism irrevocably, with the Tibetan cause fading from the international spotlight, in turn meaning a loss of the funding that has kept it alive.
Many Tibetans are therefore placing their future hopes on the 24-year-old who is the third-highest Lama in the Tibetan Buddhist hierarchy, the 17th Karmapa Lama Ogyen Trinley Dorje, who was born and raised in Tibet, but fled to India in 2000 in a dramatic trek that took him across Nepal to Dharamsala.
Looming over the centre of the town is Tsuglag Khang, the central cathedral where monks, nuns and other Tibetan come almost daily. There, I approach an elderly monk, Thupten, who has just finished praying in front of the Buddha statue. He tells me that when he was younger, he was part of a group of 15 monks who fled from Latho.
Monastery in Eastern Tibet to India to learn about Buddhist philosophy and authentic Tibetan culture. However, he tells me that after 50 years in exile, he doesn’t believe a free Tibet is possible. ‘There are more Chinese in Tibet than Tibetans,’ he says.
Khang, like many locals, is reluctant to talk about the issue of the succession, but says: ‘If the Dalai Lama goes back, I’ll go back. I’m still hopeful for the return of all Tibetans and the well-being of Tibet. But Tibet has only one Dalai Lama. If the Dalai Lama is finished, then so is Tibet.’
The issue of identity is complicated by the huge generational differences in perception over the issue of return. Most elders agree with the Dalai Lama’s ‘middle way,’ which seeks an autonomous region of Tibet inside China. But many young people are growing impatient with the lack of progress and are rallying instead for rang zen, or full independence. They have also increasingly been targeting the Chinese government through public protests in India and the West.
Many believe therefore that it is only reverence for the Dalai Lama that is keeping such passions in check, and that his passing will prompt young radical Tibetans in exile, such as those represented by the Tibetan Youth Congress to pursue more drastic action.
Speaking with some of these young exiles, I get a clearer sense of their frustration, but also how they are torn by their respect for the Dalai Lama.
‘The clash of ideologies between the young and old exiles is natural–I don’t expect it to change,’ says Rinchen Tenzin, who was born in Kham province in Tibet. ‘Older exiles think the old way and might try for independence after they gain autonomy. But younger people are getting more impatient every day.’
Tenzin says he doesn’t personally hate the Chinese, arguing that they, unlike their leaders, actually also want a free Tibet. But although he believes Tibet issue will slowly recede from international attention, he says he is convinced that Tibetans are still born lucky, and that they are blessed to have a leader like the Dalai Lama. ‘Tibet is now in every country–everybody knows about Tibet,’ he says.
Tenzin says he is also sceptical about what the future would hold if he ever did return to Tibet. ‘If I go back to Tibet, it will be hard for me. Maybe I would have to learn Chinese. It would be difficult to start life over again.’
But despite a sense of drift, frustration with China’s perceived stalling tactics and a feeling by some that the West has failed to exert sufficient pressure on China to soften its stance, officials of the Tibetan government in exile I spoke with were still supportive of US efforts on the issue.
‘The US Tibet policy has strong grassroots support and the US Congress is deeply involved in the Tibet issue,’ says Samphel Thupten, secretary of the Department of Information and International Relations for the exiled government, who also notes there has been widespread international support for the Dalai Lama’s middle way.
However, he warns that in the meantime, there are growing problems for Tibetan refugee settlements as educated young people leave in search of jobs. He says the government in exile is doing its best to improve education and administration, but has limited resources.
And while US efforts are broadly appreciated, some worry that China’s efforts to keep Tibet off the international radar could be bearing fruit, concerns that were exacerbated by Obama’s decision not to meet with the Dalai Lama.
Obama has, for his part, pledged that he will raise the Tibet issue with the Chinese leadership when he visits there next week. But questions remain among exiles in Dharamsala and elsewhere about how hard the administration will push as it also seeks better ties with China. In the meantime, Tibetan refugees are left waiting, and hoping, as they have been for 50 years.





