Russian Roulette

February 02, 2009

By Medhi Chebil

The head of the Russian Block in the Crimean parliament, Oleg Rodivilov, doesn’t conceal where his heart and loyalty lie – his office is adorned with several Russian flags and a portrait of Vladimir Putin. Like many pro-Russian Crimeans, he openly advocates separatism if Ukraine enters NATO, believing it would be an adequate response to Kiev’s own ’secession’ from Moscow.

‘The present government wants to build a big wall between Ukraine and Russia, not only by NATO membership but also through the imposition of Ukrainian language,’ says Rodivilov.

It is an argument that resonates strongly with his Russian-speaking voters, nowhere more so than in Sevastopol, the Crimean garrison city where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is moored.

Derided by its opponents as a load of scrap metal, the Black Sea Fleet has been at the heart of heated political discussions in the peninsula since Yushchenko said he wouldn’t renew the lease and the Russians would have to leave Sevastopol by 2017. Tensions climaxed last August when Yushchenko unsuccessfully tried to restrict Black Sea Fleet operations against his Georgian ally.

‘We consider the Black Sea Fleet’s presence as a guarantee of stability in our region, because whoever controls Sevastopol controls the entire Black Sea. If the Russian fleet was to leave, two days later America, Turkey and their NATO navies would immediately show up’, Rodivilov asserts.

Many Crimeans are upset by Kiev’s rapprochement with NATO and each attempt to hold naval exercises between Ukrainian forces and NATO navies is invariably met with small but intense protests. Indeed, when the USS Mount Whitney visited Sevastopol in early November 2008, it stayed only one night and discreetly left before dawn to avoid provoking anti-NATO groups.

This speaks volumes about the daunting task faced by any Ukrainian leader wishing to join NATO and turn the country’s back on its historical – and cultural – ties.

BLACK FUTURE

What will happen if Ukraine eventually joins NATO while the Black Sea Fleet remains at Sevastopol?

Moscow claims it will respect the Ukranian government’s decision not to extend its lease beyond 2017, while analysts report that Russia could move its fleet to modernised naval facilities in Novorossiysk, a Russian town about 300km east of Sevastopol.

Ukrainian nationalists, however, remain suspicious, believing that because of Yushchenko’s record unpopularity, Russia will simply wait and see whether Ukraine’s next president will be more inclined to extend the Sevastopol lease. According to Leonid Pilunskiy, ‘It’s cheaper for Russia to finance political demonstrations here with millions of dollars, rather than spending billions of dollars to relocate its Black Sea Fleet.’

If Russia does indeed have to move its fleet, deep historical ties will have to be cut. Founded by Catherine the Great in 1783, Sevastopol has been devastated twice in recent history. The city endured a 349-day siege in the mid-19th century against a coalition of British, French and Turkish forces. In 1942, the Nazis had to raze it to the ground before conquering it, after a 250-day siege.

This bloody history is visible in the countless memorials and monuments dotting the harbour shoreline. Sevastopol inhabitants are attached to this legacy and regard the Black Sea Fleet as a living symbol of the city’s heroic past.
However, as Pilunskiy underlines, there are serious political implications to the Russians’ continued presence: ‘We face the danger of a fifth column. Separatists here feel emboldened by the presence of the Black Sea Fleet.’